Playing the Burnham Bounce, ft. Patrick Jay

And, and Will, genuinely, only eight, nine days ago, we were having serious and sensible conversations that suggested that there were other outcomes possible than Burnham just sliding into Downing Street.

Now, anything else seems completely inconceivable.

Can you just talk me through that from a markets point of view?

[lip smacks] Yeah, absolutely.

Well, firstly, I have a s- one of the many sets of odds I have, um, has Andy Burnham as 100 to 1 on to be the next prime minister.

Um, it has been an absolute whirlwind, and it's happened all so quickly.

Would you, would you, would you bet that, by the way? Is that not just a bet? Isn't it, isn't it literally he has to not die in the next, like, three weeks?

Yeah, although, um, it's the age-old case of if you have the 100, do you really need the one? Um-

You always need more

... and I'll leave you guys to decide that between yourselves.

Um, but when West Streeting, um, backed him, I think that really just sent everything into 101 territory, and, uh, look, the drapes are being measured, the big Manchester throne that the Greater Manchester mayoral staff gave him is probably gonna find its way into the flats.

Uh, I think there are plans being made and several big decisions for him to take, which he'll be thinking over, um, before July the 17th.

I think, um, you are getting your new prime minister, and his name is Andy Burnham.

[laughs] Just, just quickly before, before we kick on.

I, I...

Of course, a few markets have settled now, and I had a look at some of the, uh, some of the other markets that were...

So will Starmer lead at the next election? Somebody bet that at 4.7 or just a little over seven to two.

Uh, w- w- will Starmer leave in 2026? Uh, one fella got 79p matched at 37 to one.

Uh, but actually the main bet or the, you know, a, a price where there was actually money matched, 44 quid was done at 15, uh, 14 to one.

So, um, you know, that was quite funny when you look back and think.

And July to September traded at four to one.

Of course, that market didn't really go up until, uh, Starmer was in real trouble.

There was 483 grand matched on that.

And when we look back to...

Well, which is pretty decent, I think.