NFL Week 5 Picks - Road to 272 Bets - 2026 NFL Season

We're gonna start with my first bet being the Buccaneers plus 9.5 minus 109 against the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.

I know the Buccaneers offense has been bad this season.

I know Jalen Daniels likely gonna get another start for them.

Uh, but I can't lay this many points on a Cowboys team that has as bad of a defense as they have.

Cowboys defense 31st in opponent EPA per play, 32nd in opponent success rate, 32nd in defensive DVOA.

Last in opponent yards per play as well, giving up 6.4 yards per snap.

They are the worst defense in the NFL.

So even if they're going up against an undrafted rookie at quarterback, I don't have enough faith in them being able to hold off the Buccaneers offense enough to not only win, but obviously having to win by double digits.

Uh, this is off- uh, obviously a prime spot for a backdoor cover as well.

The Cowboys get up and by enough, they let the foot off the gas, their defense continues to suck.

Garbage time points by the Buccaneers could get them back within range quite a bit.

Um, we should also give some credit to the Buccaneers defense.

Pretty good so far this season.

Fifth in opponent EPA per play, sixth in opponent s- success rate, giving up only 5.0 yards per snap.

So with how big of a discrepancy we have between the two defenses in this game, I am going to take the points with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.

Uh, moving on to Sunday's slate, we have another NFL London game.

It is the Eagles against the Jaguars.

Um, this is a pretty big difference between, uh, health for these two teams.

Uh, so I'm gonna lay the points on the Eagles.

Or sorry, on the Jaguars at minus...

All, it's all the way up to 6.5 now.

Minus 6.5, minus 105.

I looked a little bit before recording, it was 4.5, but the amount of injuries the Eagles have suffered, just unbelievable.

Um, bringing the, bringing it up right now.

Lane Johnson, now out for them on the offensive line.