His 5 Big Stock Calls for 2027

So John's Blueprint is a five-part scorecard.

He grades monetary conditions, economic growth, corporate profits, valuations, and sentiment, each from minus two to plus two, add them up, and you get one number anywhere from minus 10 to plus

10.

So does it work? In March 2009, near the bottom of the financial crisis, it was flashing a plus seven.

And in October 2018, it was a minus four just before stocks sold off hard

late that year.

That same top-down approach helped John spot winners like Celestica early.

So, John, where's your scorecard pointing today?

Well, it's actually somewhat bearish.

I would say it's about a minus three right now.

People could debate some of the inputs I've been using, and they're a little bit forward looking.

I mean, I don't give a high ranking to economic growth right now, because even though many would say the economy is very buoyant, very strong.

My I'm looking at, I think it is very narrowly defined by the AI capex spending boom.

And I think we're more on the tip of slowing down.

Same thing for corporate profits in that environment.

They've been so driven by the AI capex spend.

If that sort of turns over to any degree, and we've seen indications of that recently, corporate profits and margins will start to head down.

So I've got a lower ranking overall.

on a few of those statistics.

Market sentiment is pretty bullish, which, you know, we have to take that as somewhat as a negative and monetary policy, call it relatively neutral.

I mean, they're tightening, but I think ultimately, ultimately they'll be taking interest rates down again.

Okay, so minus three is not far from minus four, which you had in late 2018.

Should investors be worried? And what does a cautious investor actually do with a reading like this?

Well, I mean, again, as I've said before, with this indicator, it's more of a blueprint for where you're going rather than an indicator of exactly where you stand within the portfolio.

But it suggests some defense, some caution, not being overly aggressive in the stocks and the sectors that you own.

So John's Blueprint is a five-part scorecard.

He grades monetary conditions, economic growth, corporate profits, valuations, and sentiment, each from minus two to plus two, add them up, and you get one number anywhere from minus 10 to plus

10.

So does it work? In March 2009, near the bottom of the financial crisis, it was flashing a plus seven.

And in October 2018, it was a minus four just before stocks sold off hard

late that year.

That same top-down approach helped John spot winners like Celestica early.

So, John, where's your scorecard pointing today?

Well, it's actually somewhat bearish.

I would say it's about a minus three right now.

People could debate some of the inputs I've been using, and they're a little bit forward looking.

I mean, I don't give a high ranking to economic growth right now, because even though many would say the economy is very buoyant, very strong.

My I'm looking at, I think it is very narrowly defined by the AI capex spending boom.

And I think we're more on the tip of slowing down.

Same thing for corporate profits in that environment.

They've been so driven by the AI capex spend.

If that sort of turns over to any degree, and we've seen indications of that recently, corporate profits and margins will start to head down.

So I've got a lower ranking overall.

on a few of those statistics.

Market sentiment is pretty bullish, which, you know, we have to take that as somewhat as a negative and monetary policy, call it relatively neutral.

I mean, they're tightening, but I think ultimately, ultimately they'll be taking interest rates down again.

Okay, so minus three is not far from minus four, which you had in late 2018.

Should investors be worried? And what does a cautious investor actually do with a reading like this?

Well, I mean, again, as I've said before, with this indicator, it's more of a blueprint for where you're going rather than an indicator of exactly where you stand within the portfolio.

But it suggests some defense, some caution, not being overly aggressive in the stocks and the sectors that you own.