The Strength In Numbers Podcast with G. Elliott Morris
Oct 29, 2026 · 1 hr 1 min · 12 segments
Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com. On this week’s *Strength In Numbers* podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David…
David NirHostAll right, so without further ado then, I will go ahead and share a couple of slides.
For those of you who are watching, this will help orient us to the final election forecast.
And we'll start with what I see as the best single encapsulation of the state of the race.
this meme that somebody posted in the strength in numbers discord uh saying this is the best single encapsulation of the 2026 election they have seen so far it's an old meme of mr krabs from spongebob saying wait a minute i hate and then you can enter someone they've written donald trump uh hold on
As of today, this graph shows the number of seats that Democrats or Republicans might win in a thousand different simulations of the election.
Each one has a little box and you can see they're sort of stacked on top of each other.
The median outcome is for Democrats to win 241 seats, which would be the highest since 2008 when they won 254.
David, do you know that number off the top of your head? I believe that's right.
Yeah, and by which he means, if I'm wrong, mercilessly, mercilessly bully me.
What the model is doing is saying there's a lot of races where they could be plausibly competitive in the circumstance of a blue wave.
There's a lot of likely Republican seats that the model says might go democratic in certain scenarios.
And that drags up the median a little bit from, I think what people would consider the more reasonable territory.
All right, so without further ado then, I will go ahead and share a couple of slides.
For those of you who are watching, this will help orient us to the final election forecast.
And we'll start with what I see as the best single encapsulation of the state of the race.
this meme that somebody posted in the strength in numbers discord uh saying this is the best single encapsulation of the 2026 election they have seen so far it's an old meme of mr krabs from spongebob saying wait a minute i hate and then you can enter someone they've written donald trump uh hold on
As of today, this graph shows the number of seats that Democrats or Republicans might win in a thousand different simulations of the election.
Each one has a little box and you can see they're sort of stacked on top of each other.
The median outcome is for Democrats to win 241 seats, which would be the highest since 2008 when they won 254.
David, do you know that number off the top of your head? I believe that's right.
Yeah, and by which he means, if I'm wrong, mercilessly, mercilessly bully me.
What the model is doing is saying there's a lot of races where they could be plausibly competitive in the circumstance of a blue wave.
There's a lot of likely Republican seats that the model says might go democratic in certain scenarios.
And that drags up the median a little bit from, I think what people would consider the more reasonable territory.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.