The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng
Oct 15, 2026 · 1 hr 6 min · 13 segments
Michael Fiddle, a professional sports bettor who also writes for Yahoo Betting, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: 0:00 Intro 0:35 Michael's journey into sports and…
Michael FiddleGuest
Ed FengHost
Uh, I mean, I feel like we could say that every year with the NFL, but this year feels like-
... you know, we know it's, we know NFL's like a, a war of attrition type of game, and the healthiest, think, uh, out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year, I think, uh, or, or what is it? 14 teams that make the playoffs, 12 of the 14 were also the, the teams that l- missed the least amount of games played by starters.
I, I, I actually am pretty comfortable saying I think the biggest edge in, in betting the NFL right now is just h- having a detailed tracking of injury updates and tracking the beat writers and trying to get ahead of the news and, uh, looking at that stuff to beat these line movements.
So I think, uh, there's like a heavy dose of injury modeling and probabilistic modeling.
He might come back a week early from his dislocated thumb on his throwing hand.
What's the chances? He says he wants to play, but, uh, technically he still hasn't gripped a football or thrown anything yet.
What's the chances he actually plays? How is that forecasted into the line? I, I, I really think it's, I, I don't wanna say as simple, um, 'cause it's also a complex process in doing that, but it is as straightforward might be the right word as if you just- Get injury news right like 70 s- to 70% of the time and beat line movement with correct injury news.
You're not gonna get it right every time, and sometimes it'll be behind the line movement, and Baker Mayfield does play.
Um, if, if you do that, you'll probably gain enough CLV to be a, a net profitable sports bettor.
So I actually think injuries, uh, would be the first thing that I point to, um, for a lot of these, uh, handicapping situations.
Have you had any other major takeaways from, you know, the first few weeks of NFL?
Uh, I mean, I feel like we could say that every year with the NFL, but this year feels like-
... you know, we know it's, we know NFL's like a, a war of attrition type of game, and the healthiest, think, uh, out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year, I think, uh, or, or what is it? 14 teams that make the playoffs, 12 of the 14 were also the, the teams that l- missed the least amount of games played by starters.
I, I, I actually am pretty comfortable saying I think the biggest edge in, in betting the NFL right now is just h- having a detailed tracking of injury updates and tracking the beat writers and trying to get ahead of the news and, uh, looking at that stuff to beat these line movements.
So I think, uh, there's like a heavy dose of injury modeling and probabilistic modeling.
He might come back a week early from his dislocated thumb on his throwing hand.
What's the chances? He says he wants to play, but, uh, technically he still hasn't gripped a football or thrown anything yet.
What's the chances he actually plays? How is that forecasted into the line? I, I, I really think it's, I, I don't wanna say as simple, um, 'cause it's also a complex process in doing that, but it is as straightforward might be the right word as if you just- Get injury news right like 70 s- to 70% of the time and beat line movement with correct injury news.
You're not gonna get it right every time, and sometimes it'll be behind the line movement, and Baker Mayfield does play.
Um, if, if you do that, you'll probably gain enough CLV to be a, a net profitable sports bettor.
So I actually think injuries, uh, would be the first thing that I point to, um, for a lot of these, uh, handicapping situations.
Have you had any other major takeaways from, you know, the first few weeks of NFL?
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