Oct 15, 2026 · 44 min · 27 segments
Inflation is accelerating, but bond yields are falling instead of rising. After two hotter-than-expected inflation reports, investors are beginning to question whether the massive AI spending boom can…
Uh, and so what we ended up with yesterday was a core inflation rate, uh, that came in at .33%.
Uh, super core, excluding shelter, came in at .4% and is now running 4.6% annualized for the last three months.
So the immediate move in bonds was, "Uh-oh, we need to sell off." So the 10-year, I was, I was watching this yesterday.
And so I'm watching it and I'm, I'm going, "Okay, like, let's, let's see how this, you know, ends up playing." And then yields just bled lower throughout the day.
It was just like, if you look at it, it's just this 45-degree angle down over the course of the day to the point where when we closed yesterday, 10-year at around 4:00 PM, uh, was sitting there back at 5.18%, and you're like, "Okay," like, "I'm, I'm glad we did that." And then overnight, in the early part of the evening session, 10-year gaps down again to 515 and keeps bleeding lower, uh, to get to 51 overnight.
[singing] Feelin' hot, hot, hot.
It was 1.3% month over month, uh, as opposed to expectations of .5% month over month.
Uh, the core number came in at .7% versus expectations of .3, and so PPI, even if you pull out the energy side of things, it is just screaming hot because diesel bleeds into everything.
Yeah, the, the producer price, like, on consumer price index data that we're seeing right now, it is, it is hot.
We could get there again, I'm not debating that, but like, you know, in 2022, what did we top out at, like 8.8% on CPI?
On the producer price index side of things, we are hitting, uh, price levels or w- or rates of inflation, rather, that we haven't seen since 2022 on the producer end of things, and I think the-
Uh, and so what we ended up with yesterday was a core inflation rate, uh, that came in at .33%.
Uh, super core, excluding shelter, came in at .4% and is now running 4.6% annualized for the last three months.
So the immediate move in bonds was, "Uh-oh, we need to sell off." So the 10-year, I was, I was watching this yesterday.
And so I'm watching it and I'm, I'm going, "Okay, like, let's, let's see how this, you know, ends up playing." And then yields just bled lower throughout the day.
It was just like, if you look at it, it's just this 45-degree angle down over the course of the day to the point where when we closed yesterday, 10-year at around 4:00 PM, uh, was sitting there back at 5.18%, and you're like, "Okay," like, "I'm, I'm glad we did that." And then overnight, in the early part of the evening session, 10-year gaps down again to 515 and keeps bleeding lower, uh, to get to 51 overnight.
[singing] Feelin' hot, hot, hot.
It was 1.3% month over month, uh, as opposed to expectations of .5% month over month.
Uh, the core number came in at .7% versus expectations of .3, and so PPI, even if you pull out the energy side of things, it is just screaming hot because diesel bleeds into everything.
Yeah, the, the producer price, like, on consumer price index data that we're seeing right now, it is, it is hot.
We could get there again, I'm not debating that, but like, you know, in 2022, what did we top out at, like 8.8% on CPI?
On the producer price index side of things, we are hitting, uh, price levels or w- or rates of inflation, rather, that we haven't seen since 2022 on the producer end of things, and I think the-
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