Oct 2, 2026 · 1 hr 3 min · 12 segments
With a month until the midterms, the polls have Democrats favored to take the House and voters angry about high prices, especially at the pump. In this episode of Second Request, Executive Editor…
G. Elliott MorrisGuestPaul McLeodHost
Arjun SinghHostTeddy DowneyHostYou know, it's funny, because for the last couple years, since 2024, uh, Democrats have been in a state of total existential crisis, whereas Trump has been governing like he's got this ironclad mandate to do whatever he wants.
And y- just looking at where things are now, didn't we maybe overstate the, uh, extent of this supposed realignment that a lot of people thought we saw in 2024 when Trump was reelected?
You know, this is based in numbers, but it is my opinion at the end of the day.
He won the, um, Electoral College popular vote by a couple of, a couple hundred thousand votes.
Only narrower are 1960 and Trump's own election in 2016, um, in which he lost the, the, uh, the popular vote.
Um, and yet it was such a shock, right? Uh, this is maybe the justification for many in the media in Washington, DC.
It was such a shock to the political class that, um, it, it seemed like a cultural revolution of, of sorts, a big shift in the, the fortunes for right-wing politics, um, [lips smack] in America that the...
You know, the only conclusion was, oh, look how far to the right America has drifted.
But, but again, in, in reality, that was a pretty narrow, a pretty narrow victory.
Um, I think a week after the election, The Atlantic published a piece by the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, uh, and I'm paraphrasing here, but essentially this is what a realignment looks like, and that seemed, that seemed dramatically overstated to me at the time.
And, uh, l- looking at the change in voting behavior at the demographic level since, I think shows how overstated that case for a realignment was.
So if you look at the 2025 elections for Virginia and New Jersey governor, for example, there are huge shifts back to the left among, in particular Hispanic and, uh, and younger Americans.
The, and th- these were the two groups that were cited as powering Trump's victory, moving far to the right, undermining the traditional, you know, Democratic lean among these groups.
Uh, if you look at the, uh, New York Times surveys, uh, that just came out earlier this week, and you look at subgroup change there, it's even more dramatic now than it was in 2025.
So yeah, that's always a good lesson that, like, [lips smack] uh, we shouldn't be writing grand theories of American politics based off of just, just one election.
Because especially as a, you know, uh, you stare at, at the abyss of a midterm, um, it, it's very likely that your party will actually end up worse off, uh, because of that level of, you know, of, of hyper, um, smoking the hopium, as, um, in the online election community say.
You know, it's funny, because for the last couple years, since 2024, uh, Democrats have been in a state of total existential crisis, whereas Trump has been governing like he's got this ironclad mandate to do whatever he wants.
And y- just looking at where things are now, didn't we maybe overstate the, uh, extent of this supposed realignment that a lot of people thought we saw in 2024 when Trump was reelected?
You know, this is based in numbers, but it is my opinion at the end of the day.
He won the, um, Electoral College popular vote by a couple of, a couple hundred thousand votes.
Only narrower are 1960 and Trump's own election in 2016, um, in which he lost the, the, uh, the popular vote.
Um, and yet it was such a shock, right? Uh, this is maybe the justification for many in the media in Washington, DC.
It was such a shock to the political class that, um, it, it seemed like a cultural revolution of, of sorts, a big shift in the, the fortunes for right-wing politics, um, [lips smack] in America that the...
You know, the only conclusion was, oh, look how far to the right America has drifted.
But, but again, in, in reality, that was a pretty narrow, a pretty narrow victory.
Um, I think a week after the election, The Atlantic published a piece by the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, uh, and I'm paraphrasing here, but essentially this is what a realignment looks like, and that seemed, that seemed dramatically overstated to me at the time.
And, uh, l- looking at the change in voting behavior at the demographic level since, I think shows how overstated that case for a realignment was.
So if you look at the 2025 elections for Virginia and New Jersey governor, for example, there are huge shifts back to the left among, in particular Hispanic and, uh, and younger Americans.
The, and th- these were the two groups that were cited as powering Trump's victory, moving far to the right, undermining the traditional, you know, Democratic lean among these groups.
Uh, if you look at the, uh, New York Times surveys, uh, that just came out earlier this week, and you look at subgroup change there, it's even more dramatic now than it was in 2025.
So yeah, that's always a good lesson that, like, [lips smack] uh, we shouldn't be writing grand theories of American politics based off of just, just one election.
Because especially as a, you know, uh, you stare at, at the abyss of a midterm, um, it, it's very likely that your party will actually end up worse off, uh, because of that level of, you know, of, of hyper, um, smoking the hopium, as, um, in the online election community say.
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