Patrick Ruffini
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Search complete. 98 mentions across 63 episodes found for "Patrick Ruffini".
Oct 29, 2026
Galen DrukeHOST
And I'll also say over at GD, we just have like a ton of stuff going.
Galen DrukeHOST
We've got a pollster off tomorrow between Republican Patrick Ruffini, who's been more bullish on Republicans and Laksha Jane, who's been more bullish on Democrats.
Galen DrukeHOST
We've got like an hour by hour guide coming up, some final looks at the polls, like we're going to end a late night podcast on election night.
Galen DrukeHOST
So you
Emily JashinskyGUEST
But I think there are a couple of things that challenge that this time around, which is one.
Emily JashinskyGUEST
Patrick Ruffini is a right of center pollster.
Emily JashinskyGUEST
Put a map up of where they believe they're under polling Republicans right now.
Emily JashinskyGUEST
This was back in September and it was states like Ohio.
Kyle KondikGUEST
A conversation where we talk about poll error and like, you know, as the polls underestimating Republicans and whatnot.
Kyle KondikGUEST
And there is some historical research that Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, has done.
Kyle KondikGUEST
Also, The Economist had something about this recently about how it's pretty common for Democrats to be understated in blue states and Republicans to be understated in red states.
Kyle KondikGUEST
And what would be a reason for that? Well, like if you're showing – if you don't have – if you've got so undecided, it sort of stands to reason that those people would sort of break toward the sort of majority party in a state.
Erick EricksonHOST
Look, people are starting to vote.
Erick EricksonHOST
And interestingly enough, Patrick Ruffini has put out that in the states that border Canada, Republicans are starting to turn out ahead of Democrats.
Erick EricksonHOST
Michigan, Maine, Minnesota, Republicans are actually turning out now.
Erick EricksonHOST
It's the southern and midwestern states where the GOP isn't turning out the ones they need to win.
Erick EricksonHOST
Look, people are starting to vote.
Erick EricksonHOST
And interestingly enough, Patrick Ruffini has put out that in the states that border Canada, Republicans are starting to turn out ahead of Democrats.
Erick EricksonHOST
Michigan, Maine, Minnesota, Republicans are actually turning out now.
Erick EricksonHOST
It's the southern and midwestern states where the GOP isn't turning out the ones they need to win.
Jack WindsorHOST
Then there was the coefficient poll of 925 likely voters earlier this month, and it had Ramaswamy 45 to 43 and Husted 44 to 43.
Jack WindsorHOST
Echelon's Patrick Ruffini has said publicly, Ohio is a state where Republicans are the hardest to reach in polls.
Jack WindsorHOST
True story.
Jack WindsorHOST
All three polls, though, that we just talked about are inside the margins of error.
Amy WalterHOST
As we head into these final days before the midterm election, things are looking very good for Democrats.
Amy WalterHOST
But are the polls overestimating just how good of a night it may be for Democrats? especially in the Upper Midwest? And what to make of the drastic shift of Latino voters away from Trump, especially in places like Texas and Florida? Was Trump's success with these voters in 2024 an aberration or proof that these voters are now officially up for grabs? That's why, this week, I reached out to Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini.
Amy WalterHOST
He's a guy who has spent a lot of time studying and analyzing these same questions.
Amy WalterHOST
He is a partner and pollster at Echelon Insights, the author of the popular substack, The Intersection.
16 MINS LATER
Patrick RuffiniGUEST
And it's always been a hot bell climb against a Democratic Party that is leaderless, right? That doesn't really seem to have a very clear direction.
Patrick RuffiniGUEST
And that's a good thing for them because they become kind of this empty vessel for voter dissatisfaction.
Amy WalterHOST
quick break and we'll be back with Patrick Ruffini.
Erin CoveyADVERTISER
Hey there, it's Erin Covey, the house editor here at the Cook Political Report.
Emily JashinskyHOST
Now, here's what does give me pause about making any massive predictions.
Emily JashinskyHOST
Patrick Ruffini, a right-of-center pollster over at Echelon with Kristen Soltis Anderson, put up a map in late September.
Emily JashinskyHOST
A purpose of nothing, he wrote on X, this is where we think strong Republicans are hardest to reach in our polls.
Jax SkellySOUNDBITE_SPEAKER
A
Dustin OlsonHOST
I was actually shocked to see that it's a plus two.
Dustin OlsonHOST
And you mentioned Patrick Ruffini in the segment that we showed folks.
Dustin OlsonHOST
Patrick did his research of Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa and showed that 33 days out, the average miss in those states was 6.2%.
Dustin OlsonHOST
But in midterms, it's 6.7%.
Jim McLaughlinGUEST
And you see it happen all the time.
Jim McLaughlinGUEST
You know, Patrick Ruffini, the Republican pollster, has done a study where it showed I think it was basically over the last couple election cycles in the U.S. Senate races.
Jim McLaughlinGUEST
The media polls have skewed towards the Democrats by about three to five points.
Jim McLaughlinGUEST
And then every time after they miss, they say, oh, we're going to do this to get better and we're going to do that.
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