Trump's Midterm Strategy Is Wrong and Karl Rove Knows Why | Karl Rove

**Guest** Karl Rove, Republican Political Strategist and Former Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush **Guest Bio** Karl Rove is one of the most influential Republican political strategists in modern American history. Known as "The Architect" of George W. Bush's two presidential campaigns, Rove served as Senior Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff in the Bush White House from 2000 to 2007. Before his government career, he ran Karl Rove + Company, an Austin-based public affairs firm that worked on more than 75 Republican campaigns across 24 states. He writes a weekly column for the Wall Street Journal, appears regularly on Fox News, and is the author of the New York Times bestseller Courage and Consequence. **Show Summary** "Authenticity matters," says Karl Rove, and he means it as a warning. In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with the Republican strategist who helped put George W. Bush in the White House, to talk about what the GOP is getting wrong heading into the 2026 midterms, and what it would take to get it right. Rove argues that the current Trump-centric strategy is a mistake. If the president isn't popular, don't make him the issue. Let candidates like Mike Rogers in Michigan and Steve Hilton in California run as individuals. He points to Trump's biggest policy win, securing the southern border, and asks why the president never went to the border to celebrate it with the local (mostly Democratic, mostly Latino) officials who would have praised him on camera. The conversation moves to the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, the 2028 presidential field (Rove is blunt about JD Vance: "How do you go from saying Donald Trump is Adolf Hitler to saying I'm honored to be his running mate?"), and a California voter ID ballot initiative that Rove says could start rebuilding Republican credibility in the state. He closes with the story of his great-grandfather Olaf Julius Rove, a Norwegian peasant who came to America with nothing and whose great-grandson ended up working in the White House. **Chapters** 00:01 – Welcome: Karl Rove, "The Architect," on State of Gold 00:16 – The Ideal Republican Candidate: Why Authenticity Beats Consultants 01:17 – The George W. Bush Playbook: Four Big Issues and One Nobody Expected 03:04 – Dan Schnur's Rule: Authenticity, Authenticity, Authenticity 03:35 – Trump's Midterm Strategy: Why Making the President the Issue Is Wrong 04:05 – Let Candidates Shine: Mike Rogers, Susan Collins, Jon Husted, Steve Hilton 05:06 – Message Discipline and Selling the Border Win 05:21 – The Border Success Trump Never Celebrated 06:52 – Too Little, Too Late: The Midterm Convention and the $5,000 Dividend 07:37 – Three Explanations for One Promise: Tariffs, Profits, or Reconciliation 08:08 – Trump's Billion Dollar War Chest: Why Holding Back Is Indefensible 09:24 – Super PAC Math: When $1 of Campaign Money Equals $10 of PAC Money 10:42 – Paxton vs. Talarico: YouTube Dominance and the Texas Senate Race 11:12 – Paxton's History of Running Behind the Ticket 11:43 – Austin, Travis County, and Why Talarico Went Left 13:14 – The 2028 Field: JD Vance, Rubio, Youngkin, Kemp, Cotton, Cruz 14:59 – Is Vance Authentic? Rove Says No 15:31 – Hillbilly Elegy vs. the Milwaukee Speech: Populism vs. Conservatism 16:32 – The Populism Trap: Why Grievance Politics Aren't Optimistic 17:03 – Lincoln's Lesson: "As Our Case Is New, So Must We Think Anew" 17:33 – How Republicans Win California: Quality Candidates and Wedge Issues 19:04 – Voter ID on the California Ballot: A Common Sense Reform Play 20:06 – Carl DeMaio, Reform California, and the Signatures to Get It Done 20:53 – Voter ID Doesn't Suppress Turnout: The Alabama Example 22:25 – The DSA Playbook: Force Democrats to Own Their Party's Fringe 23:10 – "Workers Deserve More": The Stump Speech for Every Republican 24:26 – America at 250: Rove on Resilience, History, and the Worst Times 25:30 – The Country That Keeps Stepping Forward 26:16 – Olaf Julius Rove: From Norwegian Peasant to the American Dream 27:32 – The Desk, the White House, and the Gift of Being American 28:33 – Reagan's Lesson: "We Can Be the Shining City on the Hill" 29:05 – Jon's Family Story: From Ukraine Through Ellis Island to California **Connect with Karl Rove** - X:  https://twitter.com/KarlRove - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/karlrove/ - Instagram:  https://instagram.com/karlrove/ - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/karlrove/ - Official Website: https://www.karlrove.com/ Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast **Connect with State of Gold** - X: https://x.com/realjonslavet - Linked In: https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/about - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en - Website: www.stateofgold.com