From ‘Trump Curious’ to ‘Trump Furious’: Inside the Midterm Odds

Kristen, Dave, and Terrence, thanks for coming on on.

Thank you for having us.

Thanks, Cara.

Happy to be here.

So we're taping this on Monday morning and things are moving quickly.

As of this week, polling is increasingly optimistic for the Democrats' chances of retaking a majority in the House.

The Senate went from Republican confidence in holding onto power earlier this year to quite competitive a few weeks out.

I'd like each of you to talk about one recent shift in polling that surprised you and why.

And we're going to get into more detail, but let's start there.

Kristen, you go first, then Dave and Terrence.

My answer

is the shift that didn't happen back toward the Republicans.

If you look at the polls over the last two midterm elections, it's kind of normal for them to be pretty bullish on Democrats during the summer and then to converge more toward Republicans.

reality as Election Day approaches, where it's a little bit less of a big wave, where Republicans sort of close the gap a little.

That narrowing hasn't happened.

I have seen in some of my polling Republicans expressing a little more enthusiasm to vote than they were over the summer.

And Democrats have been fired up for over a year.

They have been ready for this midterm, ready to go.

Where Republicans have been a little more checked out, I don't want to talk about politics.

I don't want to think about it.

The expectation is that as Election Day approached and as hundreds of millions of dollars got spent on air, they would tune back in.

But that's only happening somewhat.

And the polls have not moved in a big, you know, Republican direction since we got past Labor Day.

So to me, The biggest surprise shift is actually the shift that didn't happen.

Hasn't happened yet, at least.