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Know Your Risk Podcast

Know Your Risk Podcast

A Brazil ETF Plunged 38%. They Bought.

Oct 26, 2026 · 35 min · 12 segments

October 26, 2026 - A political shock sends investors scrambling out of Brazil. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor see a reason to start buying. Chase describes adding a small position in a Brazilian…

October 26, 2026 - A political shock sends investors scrambling out of Brazil. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor see a reason to start buying. Chase describes adding a small position in a Brazilian small-cap ETF that fell as much as 38% intraday before closing down roughly 31.6%—and explains why he thinks the selling went further than the underlying businesses justified. Their argument isn’t that Brazil’s problems disappeared. High interest rates, government deficits and political uncertainty remain real obstacles. The question is whether investors had priced in too much optimism before the election—and then swung too far toward pessimism afterward. That same search for indiscriminate selling leads them to software stocks, including Adobe, DocuSign and Toast. They discuss how the AI trade could keep pressuring the sector, why company fundamentals still matter, and how stock charts can reveal a turn before the business story becomes obvious. Plus, conflicting signals from the oil market, the approaching U.S. midterms, and why Zach would consider buying an election-driven selloff if the economy’s biggest spending engines remain intact. Schedule your free Know Your Risk Review at KnowYourRiskRadio.com

October 26, 2026 - A political shock sends investors scrambling out of Brazil. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor see a reason to start buying. Chase describes adding a small position in a Brazilian…

Speakers: Zach AbrahamHostChase TaylorHost

Top entities: Brazil×23 Adobe×4 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva×5 Artificial intelligence×5 Jair Bolsonaro×4

Daily Market Rundown1:14 – 3:09

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:14

S&P closed up 0.71.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:17

Equal weight was about half that.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:19

Small caps up almost half a percent.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:21

The Q's up 1.1. MAG7 up 0.9. AI stocks up 2.1. All World Ex-U.S. up 0.2, Dollar up 0.25, so a weird day of Dollar up, but a lot of other things that didn't care.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:37

Inside of Mag 7, really only two stories.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:40

That was Nvidia up 2.4 and Tesla up a whopping 5.2. Oil was a little weird today.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:51

Front month was down 1.9.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:52

But you go out to December of 27, it was up.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:56

You go to May of 27, it was barely down.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:59

Interesting day there.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:02

Gold up 0.5%.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:04

Silver basically flat.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:05

Gold miners, though, up 1% again on a dollar down day.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:09

It's a little bit interesting.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:11

Copper up a little bit.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:13

The two-year was up four basis points, but the rest of the curve was down one or two basis points.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:19

Vol down 2.3% back to 19.16 after a little bit of play time above 20 last week.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:28

And then the individual names inside AI were pretty strong for the day.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:34

And then, yeah, as mentioned, so the one I'm looking at is the small cap version of the Brazil ETF, which we grabbed a little bit of today as the Puke-a-thon hit.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:48

At one point it was down 38% today.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:53

closed down 31.6 and it's up a little after hours.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:56

So it's already bouncing back some, but you had some just catastrophe stuff going on inside of some, some, even some great names that this doesn't really impact at all inside Brazil.

C

Chase TaylorHost

3:07

So.

C

Chase TaylorHost

3:09

Yeah.

C

Chase TaylorHost

3:09

Maybe.

BrazilCountryCountry in South America
99%23 mentions
AdobeCompanyComputer software company
97%4 mentions
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaPersonTrade unionist and former President of Brazil
95%5 mentions
Artificial intelligenceEntityProfessional field
93%5 mentions
Jair BolsonaroPersonFormer President of Brazil
91%4 mentions
IranCountryCountry in the Middle East
89%4 mentions
South AmericaContinentContinent
88%6 mentions
Cleveland BrownsSports TeamAmerican football team
86%2 mentions
Patrick MahomesPersonKansas City Chiefs quarterback
84%1 mention
Brazilian presidential electionEntity
82%1 mention
Toast, Inc.CompanyCompany
80%4 mentions
StraitEntityGeographical feature category
78%3 mentions
SeattleCityCity in Washington State
76%3 mentions
HouthisOrganization
74%9 mentions
Trek Financial, LLCCompanyCompany
72%2 mentions
YouTubeWebsiteVideo sharing company
70%2 mentions
Democratic PartyOrganizationPolitical party
68%6 mentions
IsraelCountryCountry in the Middle East
66%1 mention
Financial servicesEntity
64%1 mention
DocuSignCompanySoftware company
63%2 mentions
S&P 500EntityStock market index
61%1 mention
LyftCompanyCompany
59%2 mentions
United StatesCountryCountry in North America
57%1 mention
NasdaqEntityStock exchange
55%1 mention
Saudi ArabiaCountryCountry in the Middle East
51%5 mentions
PakistanCountryCountry in South Asia
51%3 mentions
TurkeyCountryCountry
51%2 mentions
Seattle SeahawksSports TeamAmerican football team
47%1 mention
Kansas CityCityCity in Missouri
45%1 mention
TehranCityCapital of Iran
43%2 mentions
Uber TechnologyCompanyTransport company
41%3 mentions
United States CongressCompanyGoverning body
39%6 mentions
Hugo ChávezPersonVenezuelan Politician
38%2 mentions
NvidiaCompanyAI company
36%1 mention
TeslaCompanyAutomotive company
34%1 mention
Republican PartyOrganizationPolitical party
32%3 mentions
ModernaCompanyBiotechnology company
30%1 mention
Donald TrumpPerson45th and 47th U.S. President
28%2 mentions
FremenEntity
26%2 mentions
MaseratiCompanyCar manufacturer
24%1 mention
Latin AmericaAdministrative AreaRegion
22%1 mention
WashingtonAdministrative AreaUS state
20%2 mentions
Dune: Part OneMovie2021 film
18%1 mention
IraqCountryCountry in the Middle East
16%1 mention
QatarCountryCountry in the Middle East
14%1 mention
United States SenateOrganizationGoverning body
13%3 mentions
White HouseTourist AttractionOfficial residence in Washington, D.C., United States
11%1 mention
TexasAdministrative AreaUS state
9%1 mention
Kenneth Walker IIIPersonAmerican American football player
7%1 mention
United States Securities and Exchange CommissionGovernment OrganizationGovernment agency
5%1 mention

United States PoliticsPolitics
U.S. ElectionsPolitics > United States Politics
Midterm ElectionsPolitics > United States Politics > U.S. Elections
Global Equity MarketsFinance > Financial Markets
Brazilian Presidential ElectionPolitics > Elections > Brazilian Politics
Iran Regional TensionsGeopolitics > Middle East Geopolitics
Emerging MarketsFinance > Financial Markets > Global Equity Markets
Brazilian Small-Cap EquitiesFinance > Financial Markets > Global Equity Markets > Emerging Markets
Lula Bolsonaro Election-Market ReactionPolitics > Elections > Brazilian Politics > Brazilian Presidential Election
Strait of Hormuz Disruption RisksGeopolitics > Middle East Geopolitics > Iran Regional Tensions
Oil-Market and Diplomatic NegotiationsGeopolitics > Middle East Geopolitics > Iran Regional Tensions > Strait of Hormuz Disruption Risks
Public Technology CompaniesTechnology > Financial Technology
AI and Software Equity RotationTechnology > Financial Technology > Public Technology Companies
Adobe Toast and Enterprise-Software ValuationTechnology > Financial Technology > Public Technology Companies > AI and Software Equity Rotation
Fiscal Policy and Market ImplicationsPolitics > United States Politics > U.S. Elections > Midterm Elections
Financial TechnologyTechnology
Financial MarketsFinance
Brazilian PoliticsPolitics > Elections
Middle East GeopoliticsGeopolitics
Politics
Technology
ElectionsPolitics
Finance
Geopolitics

Daily Market Rundown1:14 – 3:09

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:14

S&P closed up 0.71.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:17

Equal weight was about half that.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:19

Small caps up almost half a percent.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:21

The Q's up 1.1. MAG7 up 0.9. AI stocks up 2.1. All World Ex-U.S. up 0.2, Dollar up 0.25, so a weird day of Dollar up, but a lot of other things that didn't care.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:37

Inside of Mag 7, really only two stories.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:40

That was Nvidia up 2.4 and Tesla up a whopping 5.2. Oil was a little weird today.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:51

Front month was down 1.9.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:52

But you go out to December of 27, it was up.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:56

You go to May of 27, it was barely down.

C

Chase TaylorHost

1:59

Interesting day there.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:02

Gold up 0.5%.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:04

Silver basically flat.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:05

Gold miners, though, up 1% again on a dollar down day.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:09

It's a little bit interesting.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:11

Copper up a little bit.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:13

The two-year was up four basis points, but the rest of the curve was down one or two basis points.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:19

Vol down 2.3% back to 19.16 after a little bit of play time above 20 last week.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:28

And then the individual names inside AI were pretty strong for the day.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:34

And then, yeah, as mentioned, so the one I'm looking at is the small cap version of the Brazil ETF, which we grabbed a little bit of today as the Puke-a-thon hit.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:48

At one point it was down 38% today.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:53

closed down 31.6 and it's up a little after hours.

C

Chase TaylorHost

2:56

So it's already bouncing back some, but you had some just catastrophe stuff going on inside of some, some, even some great names that this doesn't really impact at all inside Brazil.

C

Chase TaylorHost

3:07

So.

C

Chase TaylorHost

3:09

Yeah.

C

Chase TaylorHost

3:09

Maybe.

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