Ami Daniel, Founder and CEO of Windward, on Why 5 Million Barrels a Day Decide the World Economy, How Western Sanctions Left Russian Tankers Uninsured, and Why Force Can’t Fully Reopen Hormuz

Ami Daniel, co-founder and CEO of Windward, on the Houthi blockade of Saudi oil, Trump's Russian diesel deal, and why the next war will be fought at sea. On this episode of Invested, Michael Eisenberg talks with Ami Daniel, back for a record third appearance, about how Iran and the Houthis are disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb with cheap drones and missiles. Using Windward's maritime AI data, Ami explains why tanker freight rates have climbed from about $60,000 a day to nearly $1 million, why ship location transmissions around the Gulf have dropped 83%, and why he counts roughly 90 million more barrels leaving the Gulf over 12 days than public numbers show. They also cover Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, the halt of Qatar's LNG exports from Ras Laffan, the split between US and European sanctions on Russia, marine insurance as the financial chokepoint of global trade, China's incursions near Taiwan and the Philippines, and the threat to undersea internet cables. Ami served as an officer on the INS Hanit, the Israeli Navy corvette hit by a Hezbollah missile off Beirut on July 14, 2006. Four people were killed and about 12 were wounded. He first came on Invested after October 7th, when he set up a command center in his home to help rescue people from the Gaza envelope, and returned in March at the start of the war with Iran. **KEY TOPICS** 00:00 - Intro 00:41 - Ami Daniel's Record Third Appearance 02:28 - What Windward Does 03:49 - Hit by a Hezbollah Missile in 2006 04:49 - Iran Copies the Houthi Model 05:47 - Why Hormuz Can't Be Opened by Force 07:00 - How ADNOC Keeps Gulf Oil Moving 08:42 - Tanker Freight Rates Near $1M a Day 10:15 - The 5 Million Barrel Swing Factor 13:04 - Why the US Guards Gulf Oil 14:21 - How Iran Armed the Houthis 16:20 - The Houthi Blockade on Saudi Exports 20:41 - 83% of Ships Go Dark 21:52 - 90 Million Barrels Missing From Public Numbers 23:31 - Qatar's LNG and Fertilizer Shutdown 25:19 - Jebel Ali Container Imports Cut Off 27:57 - Are Iran's Naval Mines Here to Stay? 31:49 - The Houthi Blockade on Eilat Port 33:32 - The Trump-Putin Russian Diesel Deal 38:06 - US vs. European Sanctions on Russia 41:12 - Marine Insurance, the Financial Chokepoint 43:52 - China's Push Into Marine Insurance 44:47 - What Big Banks Fear About Oil Prices 47:06 - Iran's Death by a Thousand Cuts 49:36 - Is the Blockade on Iran Working? 51:31 - Can Iran Wait Out Trump? 54:50 - Turkey's New Maritime Claim 55:49 - China's Incursions Near Taiwan 59:46 - Ukraine's Drones and Maritime Drones 1:02:06 - Undersea Cables Under Threat 1:03:51 - Who Protects the Seas? 1:06:24 - Ami's Predictions for Iran and Russia **RESOURCES** Follow Ami on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/amidaniel/ Learn more about Windward - https://windward.ai/ Listen to Ami's October 7th episode - https://www.aleph.vc/content/special-episode-of-invested-with-ami-daniel Listen to Ami's Strait of Hormuz episode - https://aleph.vc/content/ami-daniel Subscribe to Invested: https://content.aleph.vc/invested Learn more about Aleph: https://www.aleph.vc/ Sign up for Aleph’s monthly email newsletter: https://newsletter.aleph.vc/ Subscribe to Aleph’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@aleph-vc/ Follow Michael on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikeeisenberg Follow Michael on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mieisenberg/ Follow Aleph on Twitter: https://x.com/aleph?s=20 Follow Aleph on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/aleph-vc/ Follow Aleph on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/aleph.vc/ **CREDITS** Executive Producer: Erica Marom Producer: Sofi Levak, Dalit Merenfeld Video and Editing: Nadav Elovic Music and Creative Direction: Uri Ar Content and Editorial: Jackie Goldberg Design: Nimrod Sapir