Sep 30, 2026 · 59 min · 11 segments
Send us Fan Mail Join us for an engaging and thought-provoking conversation with **Rick Nason**, author of *It's Not Complicated: The Art and…
Rick NasonGuestRobinPanelistSimon LovegroveHostAnnaPanelistDavidPanelistMaureenPanelistAntoinette QuickPanelistHarthill PanelistPanelistThe other thing I was curious about was we typically, when we're talking about complexity, the main thing that seems to be sort of in the background is what could possibly go wrong, you know, Murphy's law.
And I mean, one of the things I think that leaders develop, you know, to Jim Collins is saying, you know, that kind of constructive paranoia, you know, it's, But you're pointing out about the opportunities lying in complexity.
So how do you train or develop people to kind of work with it in such a way that happens? Or is it simply a question of falling over into success because you were there?

Well, you know, first off, my work in complexity kind of began in risk management.


whether people know it or not, that's kind of the standard definition of risk in academia.


And also, when you start from that, you start to also separate out risk from uncertainty.

I'm not trying to make this an academic seminar, but we have the 19 definition of risk is where we know the outcomes and where we know the probability distribution.

And so I tell my my my graduate students, you know, I can predict what their starting salary is going to be.

you know, because I know what the distribution is, I know what the probability, so I can say the probability that you make X is this, the probability that you make Y is this.

Uncertainty is we don't know what the outcomes are, nor, and because of that, we obviously don't know distribution, so I say uncertainty is I don't know what half of you are going to be doing in 10 years time, because in 10 years time, the job that you are likely to be doing currently doesn't exist, currently hasn't been dreamed up.

Let's just go back 10 years in each of our careers and think about influencer, search engine optimizer, prompt manager.

Like, what are you going to do? Hold up the cue cards at the theater? Like, I mean, seriously.
The other thing I was curious about was we typically, when we're talking about complexity, the main thing that seems to be sort of in the background is what could possibly go wrong, you know, Murphy's law.
And I mean, one of the things I think that leaders develop, you know, to Jim Collins is saying, you know, that kind of constructive paranoia, you know, it's, But you're pointing out about the opportunities lying in complexity.
So how do you train or develop people to kind of work with it in such a way that happens? Or is it simply a question of falling over into success because you were there?

Well, you know, first off, my work in complexity kind of began in risk management.


whether people know it or not, that's kind of the standard definition of risk in academia.


And also, when you start from that, you start to also separate out risk from uncertainty.

I'm not trying to make this an academic seminar, but we have the 19 definition of risk is where we know the outcomes and where we know the probability distribution.

And so I tell my my my graduate students, you know, I can predict what their starting salary is going to be.

you know, because I know what the distribution is, I know what the probability, so I can say the probability that you make X is this, the probability that you make Y is this.

Uncertainty is we don't know what the outcomes are, nor, and because of that, we obviously don't know distribution, so I say uncertainty is I don't know what half of you are going to be doing in 10 years time, because in 10 years time, the job that you are likely to be doing currently doesn't exist, currently hasn't been dreamed up.

Let's just go back 10 years in each of our careers and think about influencer, search engine optimizer, prompt manager.

Like, what are you going to do? Hold up the cue cards at the theater? Like, I mean, seriously.
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