GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish
Jun 11, 2026 · 43 min · 8 segments
3-4 Fed Rate Hikes next year. Andrew Slazenger (reach out for a free trial, institutional investors only: andrew.slazenger@tslombard.com) hosts Dario Perkins and Freya Beamish as they answer: 1\)…
Freya BeamishGuestDario PerkinsGuest
Andrew SlazengerHost
we should actually make, to be a bit quantitative about this, we should actually make an index of the amount of pushback that we get on things because it does, frankly, seem to be quite well negatively correlated with what happens next.
The thing is that a client did accuse us of rage bait with the last podcast because we did use the bubble word quite a lot.
But to get back to the actual question, which was much more thoughtful question from a client, which was what would have to happen to make you less sceptical about AI? I think it's quite simple.
And I said it out in a note last week, which is that if you look at what's happening in tech, there's these massive increases in revenues, in earnings.
But the issue is that the capex just keeps going higher and higher and higher.
So when you look at the sort of source of revenues within the AI sector, it's all coming from CapEx.
It's basically 85% of the revenues that are circling, and they are going round and round in this whole ecosystem, are coming from these massive CapEx numbers.
Now, in the note that I wrote last week, I basically said, There's a sort of bull argument and a bear argument.
And as long as you're just seeing the circular dynamics, that's not the debate being settled.
And so what you need to see to answer the question is that you need to see some of these earnings starting to come in from outside the ecosystem.
we should actually make, to be a bit quantitative about this, we should actually make an index of the amount of pushback that we get on things because it does, frankly, seem to be quite well negatively correlated with what happens next.
The thing is that a client did accuse us of rage bait with the last podcast because we did use the bubble word quite a lot.
But to get back to the actual question, which was much more thoughtful question from a client, which was what would have to happen to make you less sceptical about AI? I think it's quite simple.
And I said it out in a note last week, which is that if you look at what's happening in tech, there's these massive increases in revenues, in earnings.
But the issue is that the capex just keeps going higher and higher and higher.
So when you look at the sort of source of revenues within the AI sector, it's all coming from CapEx.
It's basically 85% of the revenues that are circling, and they are going round and round in this whole ecosystem, are coming from these massive CapEx numbers.
Now, in the note that I wrote last week, I basically said, There's a sort of bull argument and a bear argument.
And as long as you're just seeing the circular dynamics, that's not the debate being settled.
And so what you need to see to answer the question is that you need to see some of these earnings starting to come in from outside the ecosystem.
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