It's like everyone rubbishes them, rubbishes them, rubbishes them, and they do one thing right or a little bit better or kind of good, and suddenly it's like the greatest ever.

Yeah, I mean, you know, he made a bunch of mistakes, and he's sort of making up for them now.

In terms of, like, why did we get this right? Well, firstly, obviously, we're just a lot smarter than everybody else, and we're just really clever.

I mean, that's obviously part of it.

But I think it comes down...

No, don't.

No, please don't.

lock it up yeah

Dario, are we getting a September hike?

Firstly, how brilliant are we? Because back in November, we said there was going to be a debate about Fed rate hikes this year, that Kevin Walsh, whoever it was, wouldn't be able to cut interest rates.

If he even considered cutting interest rates, the bond market would hate it and freak out.

I mean...

This is the debate.

The debate's here.

We've already won.

So is there a level? Do you have a specific level where yields start to actually damage equities?

that.

He did a review of the Bank of England in 2014 and said that they should do fewer press conferences, which I think they did.

So that would seem obvious.

But you can't just not say anything and just spin things for 45 minutes because people are just going to get frustrated with that.

Where does this end up? Well, I think the obvious outcome is that we're going to get more volatility.

So we're going to get more volatility in yields on Fed days when we get decisions that maybe we didn't expect because we haven't been told two days before by certain newspapers that this is what the decision is going to be.

We're going to get more volatility in between meetings.

too young one of them would do that could do that but the other is good

We will.

I think that, um...

I mean, the Fed was never gonna hike in July, um, that was never part of our forecast.

I think that the pressure on them to raise interest rates immediately has obviously eased quite a lot.

Um, we had two reports over the past month that were pretty Goldilocks, so we had fairly benign payroll data, a little bit soft.

Um, and then we had a very soft, um, core CPI reading.

I think the issue is that I wouldn't read too much into one month's data after six month- after six years of missing your inflation target in the same direction.

Really? [laughs] I, I didn't know that.

So is that the kind of scenario you're envisaging? Maybe a pop in 2027? Or could it come before that?

Yes, so that was the sort of BIS.

The BIS made some headlines over the weekend.

It was covered in lots of newspapers as well.

The warning about this overinvestment cycle and the fact that this could then lead to this big crash.

And so, you know, you've got what pundits always do at times like this.

When the BIS publishes a warning, they're using it as a sort of contrarian indicator.

I

I love it.

So this is going to be year six.

So it is getting to the point where it's a little bit embarrassing.

Yes.

They you know, they don't have the sort of overheating that they had back in 2022.

But most of these economies are operating quite close to full employment.

So it's not like there's not going to be any sort of pass through.

You don't agree with that, but I think that is a wealth Well, I mean,

Yeah.

And they're all beginning to get ticked off now.

So one of them was the sort of bend to financing and the CapEx recycling.

Well, yes.Another one was that companies start to run financial deficits and start to borrow.

Well, yes.

Check.

Then you've got insider selling.

There you go.

Uh, you know, what, what, what do you think is driving the most recent pickup in productivity, and, uh, is it reasonable to expect AI to, to, to, to be having a meaningful effect at this stage?

So I'm a massive AI skeptic, but we can get into that.

In terms of the recent productivity data, I think this is just an entirely cyclical story.

I think what's happened is that we, we had the pandemic.

For a while, we had these massive labor shortages, and then companies went on this huge hiring spree where they were just desperate to get workers in, and they didn't care about the efficiency of those workers.

It was just about getting people in the door.

And then you come into this year, um, those labor shortages have gone.

Uh, is that your read as well?