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And the biggest example of this right now is the economy.
So the Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting at over fifty-one thousand.
Jobs have fully recovered.
Oh, yeah.
By traditional metrics, we are supposedly flying high.
Right.
But then you flip over to USA Today's coverage of consumer sentiment, and it has never bounced back to pre-pandemic levels.
The vibes are just completely detached from the data.
Utterly detached.
It's like your fitness tracker telling you that you had a perfect night of sleep, but you're actively battling a massive migraine.
So are these traditional economic indicators completely broken? Or, I mean, are they just measuring the wrong things for the era we're in right now?
I wouldn't say they're broken, but they are aggregate numbers, and aggregates always obscure painful local realities.
Okay, fair.
The mechanism you really need to pay attention to today, the one actually driving that migraine, is the cost of capital.
The journal highlights that the 10-year Treasury yield recently hit a twenty-four-year high.
It's at five point two seven six percent.
Okay, wait.
How does that actually connect to someone's daily life?
So think of the 10-year yield as the baseline gravity for all other money in the economy.
Gravity.
Right.
Okay.
When that yield goes up, it increases the gravitational pull on every other interest rate.
It drags mortgage rates up.
And the biggest example of this right now is the economy.
So the Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is sitting at over fifty-one thousand.
Jobs have fully recovered.
Oh, yeah.
By traditional metrics, we are supposedly flying high.
Right.
But then you flip over to USA Today's coverage of consumer sentiment, and it has never bounced back to pre-pandemic levels.
The vibes are just completely detached from the data.
Utterly detached.
It's like your fitness tracker telling you that you had a perfect night of sleep, but you're actively battling a massive migraine.
So are these traditional economic indicators completely broken? Or, I mean, are they just measuring the wrong things for the era we're in right now?
I wouldn't say they're broken, but they are aggregate numbers, and aggregates always obscure painful local realities.
Okay, fair.
The mechanism you really need to pay attention to today, the one actually driving that migraine, is the cost of capital.
The journal highlights that the 10-year Treasury yield recently hit a twenty-four-year high.
It's at five point two seven six percent.
Okay, wait.
How does that actually connect to someone's daily life?
So think of the 10-year yield as the baseline gravity for all other money in the economy.
Gravity.
Right.
Okay.
When that yield goes up, it increases the gravitational pull on every other interest rate.
It drags mortgage rates up.
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