Trump's Iran MoU explained: how Iran gets billions—and why | Eye for Iran 109

So the U.S. Treasury just issued a new license, General License X, that reopens Iran's oil, petrochemical, including not just oil, but petrochemical businesses to essentially the whole world.

Max, you were once at OFAC.

What does this let Iran do? You know, break it down.

How much money are we talking and why does this matter?

So we're talking about potentially tens of billions of dollars in a relatively short period of time.

Only some of that will go to the IRGC and the Iranian military, but it's going to be a significant sum that goes directly to them.

And what we know is that the general license in its current form, we're recording just the day after its release, is that it's pretty much unconditioned, unrestricted access to the proceeds of Iranian oil, petroleum products and petrochemicals.

And so this is a pretty important point to make that, you know, this is unconditioned, unrestricted sanctions relief that's going to provide billions of dollars to the regime in a way where they might actually be able to access U.S. dollars, since that's specifically referenced in the general license.

And we should look at this in the context of other recent general licenses, for instance, where the U.S. has authorized dealings in Venezuela.

The U.S. has taken a much more restrictive approach, requiring the funds be put into restricted accounts where the U.S. can actually manage the money that goes out of those accounts.

It's done.

It's put in restrictions on joint ventures involving Chinese firms operating in Venezuela.

But we haven't seen anything like that with respect to the Iran general license that was just put out, which substantiates this notion that the administration really is trying to put forward unconditioned, unrestricted sanctions relief right now as we go on with more negotiations with the regime.

Okay, so my question is the obvious one, why? And then B, my understanding with this general license X is that it not only gives you permission to sell, it gets you permission to get paid, like you said, in US dollars.

And then also entities that have been blacklisted are also part of this, meaning you can use them.

Yeah, that's 100 percent correct.

As for why, we know that the administration has been fighting the kinetic battle in its war against Iran, but also the battle against the market.

And so it's totally possible that the administration sees the need to ease prices for oil.

oil, for diesel, jet fuel, for all of these things that were having a stranglehold due to the blockade from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

So relieving pressure there is going to allow for prices to come down, particularly ahead of the November election.

So that's one reason for why, and I think the primary driving factor here.

Now, but to your point about Iran being able to get paid, this is a really important point, right? The general license allows for all steps taken necessary to be taken for Iran to repatriate these funds.

You know, one of one of the concerns that I have at a very high level is that the general license, General License X does not indicate if it's only effective for transactions that take place moving forward.

Right.

So after the issuance of the general license.