Sep 25, 2026 · 21 min · 7 segments
El Nino and sanctions sound like separate headlines until you follow the money and the materials. We connect the dots between climate driven yield shocks, fertilizer and energy costs, shipping…
Tony HinesHost
Well, is El Nino about to become one of the defining supply chain shocks of 26-27? And the evidence shows that it isn't a marginal weather event.
It's a multi-sector disruption hitting agriculture, energy, mining, logistics and procurement cycles simultaneously.
The strongest El Nino in 140 years is forecast to peak exactly during quarter four procurement and quarter one production planning.
El Nino will raise input costs, reduce output reliability, distort shipping flows and force businesses to redesign their sourcing strategies, especially in food, consumer goods, chemicals, automotive and clean energy supply chains.
Let's take a more detailed look at what's happening to supply chains according to the forecasts.
El Niño brings droughts to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Australia and parts of Africa.
exactly where global supply chains source palm oil, rubber, cotton, rice, grains, sugar and cocoa.
So the data is already showing that vegetable oil prices have risen by 5.9% in April 2026, and that was before El Nino had even peaked.
World Bank analysis warns that El Nino could push food prices up significantly, well above current projections.
And the Strait of Hormuz disruption is already a geopolitical and climate interaction, and it's restricted fertilizer exports.
Well, is El Nino about to become one of the defining supply chain shocks of 26-27? And the evidence shows that it isn't a marginal weather event.
It's a multi-sector disruption hitting agriculture, energy, mining, logistics and procurement cycles simultaneously.
The strongest El Nino in 140 years is forecast to peak exactly during quarter four procurement and quarter one production planning.
El Nino will raise input costs, reduce output reliability, distort shipping flows and force businesses to redesign their sourcing strategies, especially in food, consumer goods, chemicals, automotive and clean energy supply chains.
Let's take a more detailed look at what's happening to supply chains according to the forecasts.
El Niño brings droughts to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Australia and parts of Africa.
exactly where global supply chains source palm oil, rubber, cotton, rice, grains, sugar and cocoa.
So the data is already showing that vegetable oil prices have risen by 5.9% in April 2026, and that was before El Nino had even peaked.
World Bank analysis warns that El Nino could push food prices up significantly, well above current projections.
And the Strait of Hormuz disruption is already a geopolitical and climate interaction, and it's restricted fertilizer exports.
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