Oct 2, 2026 · 27 min · 11 segments
Vermont's top journalists join moderator Mitch Wertlieb to delve into the most important news stories of the week.
You know, conventional political wisdom heading into this election cycle, which was that Phil Scott is unbeatable, is being upended in real time right now for reasons that are both within and beyond Phil Scott's control.
The advantage, the built-in advantage for Democrats nationally is even more pronounced than we thought it was going to be coming into this cycle.
And some of Phil Scott's big policy agendas in Montpelier, namely education reform, are, according to this poll, exceedingly unpopular with a lot of Vermonters, Democrats and Republicans alike.
Add to that that he is facing a challenger with political talents that he has not gone up against in the recent past, at least.
And it has become a recipe for a much tighter race than a lot of people thought we were going to see this year.
You look at the poll numbers, and it shows that Genoux is within, what, 10 points, according to the Vermont Public Poll? I mean, that would, in most cases, seem like a pretty comfortable lead for the incumbent.
He still enjoys approval from 40% of Democrats, which have been a key segment of his winning coalition in Vermont.
But if you compare Phil Scott's approval among Democrats, of which there are more of than Vermont, than Republicans, from 2022 when we did the last Vermont public poll to today, and he has hemorrhaged approval among that group of Vermonters.
That first number, I had to emphasize that because, again, that's pretty astonishing.
As we talk a lot about just a sort of also level set, as we were saying before the program, a poll is just a snapshot in time, right? I mean, there's a lot of different methodologies and a lot of factors that go into each specific poll.
I mean, there was also a UNH poll as well that showed Amanda Janu up by about six points.
But yeah, to Pete's point, if you sort of unfocus your eyes and take a look at what the data is showing us in the trend lines, this is a very competitive race.
But that is also showing that people are opening up their wallets in ways that we have not seen in a decade.
You know, conventional political wisdom heading into this election cycle, which was that Phil Scott is unbeatable, is being upended in real time right now for reasons that are both within and beyond Phil Scott's control.
The advantage, the built-in advantage for Democrats nationally is even more pronounced than we thought it was going to be coming into this cycle.
And some of Phil Scott's big policy agendas in Montpelier, namely education reform, are, according to this poll, exceedingly unpopular with a lot of Vermonters, Democrats and Republicans alike.
Add to that that he is facing a challenger with political talents that he has not gone up against in the recent past, at least.
And it has become a recipe for a much tighter race than a lot of people thought we were going to see this year.
You look at the poll numbers, and it shows that Genoux is within, what, 10 points, according to the Vermont Public Poll? I mean, that would, in most cases, seem like a pretty comfortable lead for the incumbent.
He still enjoys approval from 40% of Democrats, which have been a key segment of his winning coalition in Vermont.
But if you compare Phil Scott's approval among Democrats, of which there are more of than Vermont, than Republicans, from 2022 when we did the last Vermont public poll to today, and he has hemorrhaged approval among that group of Vermonters.
That first number, I had to emphasize that because, again, that's pretty astonishing.
As we talk a lot about just a sort of also level set, as we were saying before the program, a poll is just a snapshot in time, right? I mean, there's a lot of different methodologies and a lot of factors that go into each specific poll.
I mean, there was also a UNH poll as well that showed Amanda Janu up by about six points.
But yeah, to Pete's point, if you sort of unfocus your eyes and take a look at what the data is showing us in the trend lines, this is a very competitive race.
But that is also showing that people are opening up their wallets in ways that we have not seen in a decade.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.
