Summer Summary - Q2 updates: Google, Netflix, Comcast and AI Investment

A short summer catch-up as the hosts sift through Q2 earnings across the media and tech landscape and ask a sharper question: with AI CapEx climbing quarter after quarter, when do investors start demanding proof of delivery? - **Alphabet's strong numbers, weaker shares:** Cloud revenue up over 60%, search up 17%, YouTube ad revenue up 13% — yet the stock fell as CapEx guidance was raised again (to $195–205bn for 2026), pushing quarterly free cash flow negative. - **CapEx now looks like a telco:** At roughly 40–42% of annualised revenue, tech-platform spend increasingly resembles a utility, not a software business. - **China as the wildcard:** New Chinese AI models are prompting investors to ask who really has the better AI investment strategy. - **Comcast and Peacock:** Peacock profitable for the first time since launch, ad revenue up ~70%, subscribers up 17% to 48m — and now accounting for ~33% of NBCU ad revenue (up from ~25%), partly reflecting a ~10% drop in traditional pay-TV subscribers. - **The strategic question for Peacock:** Profitability achieved — so what's next? Just another streamer, or a super-aggregator play? - **Agencies:** Publicis (~5%) outpacing Havas (~3%) and the ~2% HoldCo average, with growth still concentrated in the US while Europe stays broadly flat. - **Macro backdrop:** War and oil back above $100 create uncertainty, but limited impact on Western ad spend so far; China's structural GDP slowdown is the bigger concern. ## Key takeaways - Alphabet delivered strong Q2 numbers but shares fell as raised AI CapEx guidance ($195–205bn for 2026) turned quarterly free cash flow negative. - Tech-platform CapEx at ~40–42% of revenue now resembles a telco or utility rather than a software business, and investors want proof of delivery. - Comcast's Peacock hit profitability for the first time since launch, with ad revenue up ~70% and now ~33% of NBCU ad revenue. - Peacock is capturing cord-cutters but not fully recovering lost linear revenue — and its long-term strategic role remains unclear. - Agency growth stays concentrated in the US; Publicis (~5%) is outperforming Havas (~3%) and the ~2% holding-company average, while Europe is broadly flat. - War and $100 oil have had limited effect on Western ad spend; China's structural slowdown is the more meaningful worry for advertisers.