Royce MendesGuest
Bipin RaiHost
Three of the big four developed market central banks have hiked rates over the past few weeks.

Now the Bank of England did not hike rates in September but there's a very good chance that they will probably end up doing so in November.

The reason for these hikes largely insurance based to ensure that the second round effects of the supply shock is contained.

And of course as they usually do markets have moved to price in additional insurance hikes.

So now the Fed is expected to hike by at least seventy five basis points or or just over that amount.

And even the Bank of Canada now is expected to tighten rates by over 100 basis points, at least according to the OAS market here.

I wouldn't necessarily agree with that myself, and I'm sure my guest today will have some views and some thoughts to share on that.

And that, of course, is from increased corporate issuance in the long end that is effectively competing with some sovereign issuance as well.

Also, some nascent credibility risks or concern over deficits forever are now starting to be priced in.

And of course, recent U.S. Treasury announcements on buybacks have contributed to that.

Even the impact of oil prices and what that has meant for long end break-evens matters to an extent here as well.

To keep by a long end yields are elevated here I U. S. tens I did briefly push about the five percent mark last week and are now consolidating just below there.

You know those pressures in the long end of the U. S. curve and of course in other larger bond markets.

Three of the big four developed market central banks have hiked rates over the past few weeks.

Now the Bank of England did not hike rates in September but there's a very good chance that they will probably end up doing so in November.

The reason for these hikes largely insurance based to ensure that the second round effects of the supply shock is contained.

And of course as they usually do markets have moved to price in additional insurance hikes.

So now the Fed is expected to hike by at least seventy five basis points or or just over that amount.

And even the Bank of Canada now is expected to tighten rates by over 100 basis points, at least according to the OAS market here.

I wouldn't necessarily agree with that myself, and I'm sure my guest today will have some views and some thoughts to share on that.

And that, of course, is from increased corporate issuance in the long end that is effectively competing with some sovereign issuance as well.

Also, some nascent credibility risks or concern over deficits forever are now starting to be priced in.

And of course, recent U.S. Treasury announcements on buybacks have contributed to that.

Even the impact of oil prices and what that has meant for long end break-evens matters to an extent here as well.

To keep by a long end yields are elevated here I U. S. tens I did briefly push about the five percent mark last week and are now consolidating just below there.

You know those pressures in the long end of the U. S. curve and of course in other larger bond markets.
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