Understanding China's Nuclear Strategy

Before we get into U.S.-China strategic stability, I would like to start with North Korea.

President Xi's recent engagements with Pyongyang has renewed discussions about China's role on the Korean Peninsula.

At the same time, you have argued that Beijing's thinking on North Korea has evolved in important ways over the past few years.

How would you characterize China's current approach to North Korea and its nuclear program?

It looks like after trying to stick to the goal of a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula for many years, Beijing eventually decided that it would be very hard to achieve major breakthrough on the issue of denuclearization.

So since around May 2024, we have seen China reducing and eventually eliminating the use of the term denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

from its official documents and official statements.

This was once again confirmed by the recent Xi-Kim summit.

The issue of denuclearization was not mentioned in either party's readout of the meeting.

So it looks like China now tries to prioritize improving bilateral relations with North Korea over the long-term issue of nuclear non-proliferation.

I think this is primarily because of China's preoccupation with the strategic competition with the United States.

And under this circumstance, it is more important for China to maintain its broader geopolitical influence over North Korea, over Korean Peninsula affairs, so that China can better manage future developments in the region.

So I think that's the main purpose of this visit, which is to downplay the importance of denuclearization, but to further improve and strengthen bilateral relations.

So would you say China has effectively moved away from seeing denuclearization as an achievable near-term objective and toward managing nuclear risk and stability instead?

As you said, I think it's fair to say that China has downgraded the importance of denuclearization as a near-term goal.

And it has... probably maintained the goal as a long-term objective, as the spokespeople from the foreign ministry often insist that China's position has not changed.

I think that can be understood primarily from the long-term perspective.

Of course, China still wants to see a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, but it is not making it its near-term priority.

In fact, by refraining from mentioning the goal of denuclearization has already undercut China's capability to impose real pressure on North Korea on the issue of nuclear weapons.

one of the things that stood out to me from your presentation at the amc conference was your discussion of how china's approach to north korea has shifted since 2024 the united states still appears committed at least rhetorically to complete denuclearization Given those constraints, can Beijing realistically help encourage a more pragmatic arms control approach, or are there simply too many political barriers in Washington for that to happen?

The U.S. position may also be evolving.

It is uncertain whether the U.S. still insists, you know, the goal of denuclearization in terms of near-term achievements.

In the long run, of course, the US still wants to see denuclearization.

The US read out from the Trump-Xi summit also mentioned that both leaders agreed on the goal of denuclearization.

But there is so much debate within Washington about what is practical for the near term.