Oct 14, 2026 · 22 min · 13 segments
New polling shows a surprisingly close Minnesota U.S. Senate race between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, with independent voters potentially playing a decisive role. Opening…
Megyn KellyHost
[Instrumental music] One US Senate race receiving relatively little national attention despite the polling showing a surprisingly close contest.
It's the Minnesota matchup between Democrat Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican former sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya.
The RealClearPolling average showing Flanagan leading Tafoya by just over two points, 45.3 to 43.1%, in a state that has not elected a Republican to the US Senate since 2002.
A new Minnesota Star Tribune and KARE 11 poll finding Democrat Flanagan leading Republican Tafoya by four points, although the more revealing numbers may be what's happening among Independents.
47 Flanagan, 43 Tafoya.
Right here, that's a plus or minus three and a half points.
So you can move the line both directions.
Who would have thought that? So who's got the support? Flanagan right now among Democrats is at 90%.
Tafoya from Republicans is at 97%.
All right? Margin of error 3.5%.
Star Tribune, pretty good poll, uh, that we picked up just recently.
See that last line, Independents? What is going on in Minnesota? You got 32 at Flanagan, 38 at Tafoya, 29%...
A clear almost one-third of the voters in Minnesota are still undecided as they say they are Independents looking at this race three weeks from today.
So a lot of things could change.
The Senate contest proving considerably closer than Minnesota's race for governor with the same Star Tribune and KARE 11 poll finding Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar leading Republican Lisa Damith by nine points, 50 to 41%.
The Cook Political Report continuing to rate the open US Senate seat as likely Democrat, and prediction market Kalshi gives Flanagan an 86% chance of victory compared to just 14% for Tafoya.
That's still more than double from early August when Tafoya had just a 6% chance.
[Instrumental music] One US Senate race receiving relatively little national attention despite the polling showing a surprisingly close contest.
It's the Minnesota matchup between Democrat Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican former sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya.
The RealClearPolling average showing Flanagan leading Tafoya by just over two points, 45.3 to 43.1%, in a state that has not elected a Republican to the US Senate since 2002.
A new Minnesota Star Tribune and KARE 11 poll finding Democrat Flanagan leading Republican Tafoya by four points, although the more revealing numbers may be what's happening among Independents.
47 Flanagan, 43 Tafoya.
Right here, that's a plus or minus three and a half points.
So you can move the line both directions.
Who would have thought that? So who's got the support? Flanagan right now among Democrats is at 90%.
Tafoya from Republicans is at 97%.
All right? Margin of error 3.5%.
Star Tribune, pretty good poll, uh, that we picked up just recently.
See that last line, Independents? What is going on in Minnesota? You got 32 at Flanagan, 38 at Tafoya, 29%...
A clear almost one-third of the voters in Minnesota are still undecided as they say they are Independents looking at this race three weeks from today.
So a lot of things could change.
The Senate contest proving considerably closer than Minnesota's race for governor with the same Star Tribune and KARE 11 poll finding Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar leading Republican Lisa Damith by nine points, 50 to 41%.
The Cook Political Report continuing to rate the open US Senate seat as likely Democrat, and prediction market Kalshi gives Flanagan an 86% chance of victory compared to just 14% for Tafoya.
That's still more than double from early August when Tafoya had just a 6% chance.
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