The FOMC Shuffle
Jul 30, 2026 · 33 min · 9 segments
In this podcast, Tony and Jared discuss the FOMC, bonds, gold, semiconductors, the SpaceX IPO, dollar strength, and why speculative leadership may be breaking down…
Jul 30, 2026 · 33 min · 9 segments
In this podcast, Tony and Jared discuss the FOMC, bonds, gold, semiconductors, the SpaceX IPO, dollar strength, and why speculative leadership may be breaking down…
Tony GreerHostJared DillianHost
Matt ZieglerGuestIf the Fed hikes, which I don't think they will, but if they do... bonds, 10s and 30s, are actually going to rally.
If the Fed is on hold, the front end will rally, but the back end will sell off.
Axiom for that, because we are going to see either an action or no action out of Kevin Walsh.
The Warp page on Bloomberg is anticipating a 35 percent chance of a rate hike, which sounds kind of in line for what we're looking at.
But you point out that we just had a big miss and the rest of the data has not been extremely strong.
If the Fed hikes, which I don't think they will, but if they do... bonds, 10s and 30s, are actually going to rally.
If the Fed is on hold, the front end will rally, but the back end will sell off.
Axiom for that, because we are going to see either an action or no action out of Kevin Walsh.
The Warp page on Bloomberg is anticipating a 35 percent chance of a rate hike, which sounds kind of in line for what we're looking at.
But you point out that we just had a big miss and the rest of the data has not been extremely strong.
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