Oct 30, 2026 · 17 min · 9 segments
Mike Johnson says the polls are all wrong, and he’s bragging about arenas filled with a few hundred people. That’s what panic looks like. Ken Harbaugh explains why the blue wave may be even bigger…
Ken HarbaughHost
By the way, his comment about arenas filled with hundreds of people, that's a tell.
Lots of talking heads are talking about how the polls might be under-indexing Republican votes, but the vibe out there is real, and it is signaling something momentous.
Then there are the historical trends, which also point to an even bigger blue wave than the polls suggest.
Late October since 2006.
Does the opposition party, that is the non-White House party, win more seats than at least those that are at least leaning to them? So right now, of course, Democrats, what do they have? They have 223 seats leaning to them.
Do they win more than that? Well, the opposition party five of five times has done exactly that.
So that when you see that 223 seats, It's most likely going to be north of there.
I am very much...
So
you're saying if history tracks, that's the floor, not the ceiling.
That is exactly right.
The 223 is the floor, not the ceiling.
I expect it to be north of there.
Will it be north of 230? Some folks and some of the mathematical models I'm looking at suggest it could in fact be north of 240.
Once again, for those who wanna send a message to Donald Trump, we need to vote like we're a point behind.
There's no coasting on this one, because as big as Dem's national advantage may be, in some of these swing districts, it's gonna be close.
By the way, his comment about arenas filled with hundreds of people, that's a tell.
Lots of talking heads are talking about how the polls might be under-indexing Republican votes, but the vibe out there is real, and it is signaling something momentous.
Then there are the historical trends, which also point to an even bigger blue wave than the polls suggest.
Late October since 2006.
Does the opposition party, that is the non-White House party, win more seats than at least those that are at least leaning to them? So right now, of course, Democrats, what do they have? They have 223 seats leaning to them.
Do they win more than that? Well, the opposition party five of five times has done exactly that.
So that when you see that 223 seats, It's most likely going to be north of there.
I am very much...
So
you're saying if history tracks, that's the floor, not the ceiling.
That is exactly right.
The 223 is the floor, not the ceiling.
I expect it to be north of there.
Will it be north of 230? Some folks and some of the mathematical models I'm looking at suggest it could in fact be north of 240.
Once again, for those who wanna send a message to Donald Trump, we need to vote like we're a point behind.
There's no coasting on this one, because as big as Dem's national advantage may be, in some of these swing districts, it's gonna be close.
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