The AgriCoach Podcast by The Financial Bloke
Sep 3, 2026 · 50 min · 12 segments
Australia is heading into one of the biggest beef production years in its history — record tonnage leaving the gate. By every rule the market has ever run on, that wall of supply should be dragging…
Angus Gidley-BairdGuestBen LawHostSo one of the things that I found really interesting in the report you put out, Angus, was that prices are going up, but most producers that were surveyed, it came back suggesting that they were thinking that their incomes on the farm would stay flat or decline.

Yeah, and that's in reference to our rural confidence survey that we conduct on a quarterly basis.

And as a result, you know, there was a lot of talk on the news about El Nino, et cetera.

I think a lot of people were looking at, well… Here's that dry year that, you know, Australia inevitably has.

It will be interesting to see the Q3 numbers come out because, I mean, I don't know if you've all done it, but I've been doing a lot of comparing 2026 to 2023.

And what we had in 2023, we started the year with some record high prices.

And then I think by the middle of the year, the bomb had declared El Nino.

And we saw cattle prices slowly coming down because it was getting a bit dry.

But it almost like the market fed itself this belief that we were about to have a terribly bad drought and we better get out now.

And I tell this story a bit, but I was giving a presentation in Toowoomba.

And I was speaking to a Queensland cattle producer that had properties out in channel country.

And I think there was a lot of that mentality in the market that fed itself and it actually fell.
So one of the things that I found really interesting in the report you put out, Angus, was that prices are going up, but most producers that were surveyed, it came back suggesting that they were thinking that their incomes on the farm would stay flat or decline.

Yeah, and that's in reference to our rural confidence survey that we conduct on a quarterly basis.

And as a result, you know, there was a lot of talk on the news about El Nino, et cetera.

I think a lot of people were looking at, well… Here's that dry year that, you know, Australia inevitably has.

It will be interesting to see the Q3 numbers come out because, I mean, I don't know if you've all done it, but I've been doing a lot of comparing 2026 to 2023.

And what we had in 2023, we started the year with some record high prices.

And then I think by the middle of the year, the bomb had declared El Nino.

And we saw cattle prices slowly coming down because it was getting a bit dry.

But it almost like the market fed itself this belief that we were about to have a terribly bad drought and we better get out now.

And I tell this story a bit, but I was giving a presentation in Toowoomba.

And I was speaking to a Queensland cattle producer that had properties out in channel country.

And I think there was a lot of that mentality in the market that fed itself and it actually fell.
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