Yes, it is a lot more labour intensive than say cattle.

Yeah, exactly.

And we've seen a range of Australian countries that probably had traditionally been sheep has moved into cropping or into cattle.

I think it does create a few limitations for flock expansion in the sense that your normal increase in size, which taps into economies of scale, you don't quite get the same benefits because You increase your flock number, you're still going to have to crutch the sheep.

You're still going to have to shear the sheep.

You're still going to have to drench them.

Your labor requirements actually increase as well.

You've got more value in what you've got.

sheep farmers, should I say, on this side of the Tasman are reasonably buoyant.

Yeah.

Look, I mean, uh, there are some very positive signals in, in the global sheep meat industry, and obviously Australia and New Zealand are key players there.

I think we, we make up, uh, the majority of global exports into the world market.

Um, and I think largely due to the fact that, one, one, there's good demand and it's slowly continuing to grow, but also the fact that Australia's been through a little bit of a, a, a, a liquidation or a drop in our flock numbers.

And that was part of, uh, a, a report that I've, I'm about to release, um, shortly in terms of looking at the state of Australia's flock and, and are we actually in a sort of structural decline or, or are we going to stabilize where our numbers are? Because the demand side all looks very positive, but, um, from an Australian point of view our, our volumes have dropped right off.

So official flock numbers from the ABS, and everyone creates a model and I created my own, but rather than confuse people and put too many numbers out there, the ABS numbers suggest we're at about 65.7 million head of sheep, uh, at the moment, which would be our lowest number according to them probably since about the '70s.

Are you worried or will your report include what both countries might face in the US if the tariffs go up again?

Are you worried or will your report include what both countries might face in the US if the tariffs go up again?

Yeah, I mean, that, that is a challenge, and the US is an important market for both Australia and New Zealand.

Um, and yeah, if tariffs go up, that obviously has an impact on our competitiveness into those markets.

I think unfortunately, you know, um, in terms of a US consumer and global consumers, you know, not having access to supply will have an ultimate longer term impact on, on the demand if they can't get access to the product.

So, um, we, we are watching that.

Um, I think November's the key timeframe, uh, to, to watch and see if there's any movements and, and any announcements.

But, um, I just want to pick up, pick up on your productivity thing there.

Mm.

Are you worried, or will your report include what both countries might face in the US if the tariffs go up again?

Yeah, I mean, that, that is a challenge, and the US is an important market for both Australia and New Zealand.

Um, and yeah, if tariffs go up, that obviously has an impact on our competitiveness into those markets.

I think unfortunately, you know, um, in terms of a US consumer and global consumers, you know, not having access to supply will have an ultimate longer term impact on, on the demand if they can't get access to the product.

So, um, we, we are watching that.

Um, I think November's the key timeframe, uh, to, to watch and see if there's any movements and, and any announcements.

But, um, I just want to pick up, pick up on your productivity thing there.

How, how many of your sheep farms are on the eastern seaboard compared to West Australia? Because West Australia used to be a big sheep farming area.

Is there anything that's sort of happened where we've got to now that you've gone, gee, I didn't really... necessarily see that coming and if you look into the future what are the outside opportunities for us as australian beef producers

well i suppose the benefit of my job is the unexpected is sort of fait accompli really you know you realize in trying to forecast everything you're never going to get it right you can only hope to get close sometimes so for me i think what Well, we've talked about it, but 2023 to me, I think the producer sentiment in the market, how much influence that actually has on a market.

And to go back to the current conditions that we've got at the moment, without telling the ACCC that we're all going to get in a room and make a decision as to whether or not we do or don't sell cattle tomorrow.

But if everyone decided that they were going to sell cattle tomorrow, the market's just going to drop.

The processors and feedlots go, we know there are plenty of cattle out there.

We don't need to pay any more than we have to.

And it's when that sort of weakest leg sort of steps out of the market that the price sort of drops like that.

of months.

I spoke to Rabo Research senior animal proteins analyst Angus Geldley-Baird a little earlier

earlierYeah, we're talking global production with, uh, the, the main countries in the world, main beef producing and exporting countries in the world, US, Brazil, China, Australia, uh, Europe, et cetera, for a range of different reasons.

In the US, we've seen seasonal conditions mean that they've liquidated their herd and their volumes are down now.

Their cattle herd is lower, their production levels are lower.

Uh, in Brazil, on the other hand, we've seen very strong export volumes that have seen them actually sell off more cattle than they would've normally, and their export volumes in the first quarter of this year were record levels.

Uh, we expect that to contract through the second half or into the second half of the year.

China, on the other hand, had, uh, unprofitable conditions for beef producers a couple of years ago.

And just looking at our exports, who are the big economies that are buying our products right now?

So this new report about to come out, give us the details on this, managing increased volatility in the Australian livestock markets, which no doubt have a lot of great information for both sides of the Tasman.

Yeah, definitely.

And I mean, we share a lot of commonalities, obviously, big beef exporters and big lamb exporters in the US being a key market for both of us and China as well.

So there's a lot of similarities with it.

The real thing that sort of prompted me was looking predominantly, well, looking at the Australian market as a starting point and just seeing how much prices have moved over the last 20 years, even going back further than that, looking at the last 50 years.

But you can see that the nominal price movements are getting bigger.

So our highs are higher and our lows lower.

So is volatility something we've got to learn to live with or can we sort of move and shake and make some futuristic decisions?