DECISION TIME! - GW1 FINAL PLANS - FPL 2026/27

So I think along with the feature that Sertab's gonna talk about today, this is probably the- the thing that people have asked us for the most, and we've been thinking about doing this and talking about doing this for quite a while, going back to I think when I came on the pod last year, we were talking markets and market movements, right? And so finally, we have this dedicated section of the site now that is not just the kind of projected goals and the clean sheets, the latest numbers, but it is the kind of history of how those numbers have moved across the last week or two, uh, what all that means, where we think they might end up by deadline, et cetera.

Uh, so it's all there, it's all live, it's all very, very dynamic and exciting.

Um, and I think, you know, come Thursday, Friday, especially Friday with the Arsenal game, uh, we'll have some kind of Friday, Saturday deadlines as the season goes on.

This kind of stuff is really, really useful because, uh, you know what'll happen in game week two, three, we'll have some injury doubts, we'll have some kind of injury scares, and we'll be looking at these kind of numbers to see.

Um, generally the markets find out this stuff before we do, right? So we'll be looking at this to see if we can get any hints.

Um, but we also know that, you know, these numbers move a lot and sometimes it doesn't mean anything.

Uh, and so what we wanted to do with this was to go...

We've got years and years of past data, right? And not just kind of closing odds, we've got all the movements that happened to every single market over the last five or six years of thousands of Premier League games.

Uh, so what we wanted to do was kind of give people some confidence intervals and some of it you can see these kind of cone shape things here.

Yeah.

Uh, which is really us using all of that historical data and saying, "Right, over the next day or two before this game starts or before the deadline, this is the kind of, um, the movement we might expect from this fixture." If you're kind of looking at Liverpool on 1.95 goals now, that could mean, you know, they could be anything between 2.15 to 1.85 by deadline.

So, um, just giving people that kind of confidence to see what's happening.

And I think sometimes when things are moving and it looks dramatic, we can say, you know, historically this is not that dramatic.

We've seen this before.

Uh, but then sometimes maybe something very dramatic will happen and we can tell you, "Actually, we've never seen this kind of movement before, or very rarely." Uh, that's the benefit of w- having all the kind of past data and a bit of context.

There's a lot of, um, I think there's more we can do with this in terms of, you know, what does this mean for your team? Have you got so much, uh, somebody captained, has Liver- if Liverpool have kind of crashed a little bit and, uh, you know, they were projecting two goals yesterday, they're projecting a goal and a half today.

What does that mean for your captain? What does that mean for your, your back line? Lots of stuff we can do here, but it's, um, a place that people can click now, always see the latest numbers, but always hang out on that page long enough, you're seeing things move.

It's very...

Lovely.

And you can see here already, like Newcastle-Liverpool is a good example.

This tracks back to the time when, you know, we started the summer, I believe, like, or at least pre-season, and then they've sold certain players.

So Bruno G goes, the markets go in Liverpool's favor further.

They sell someone else, I forget who it was, Tonali maybe, uh, and then the markets f- uh, well, Tonali first and then Bruno G, and the markets have been slightly moving towards Liverpool doing better in this fixture and it'll probably be reflected in clean sheet odds as well, where Newcastle's odds, uh, go lower and, uh, Liverpool's are improving.

So is that right?

Like a narrative history of Newcastle summer, which Johnny might not want to think about too much, right?