Oct 16, 2026 · 41 min · 19 segments
RenMac breaks down another round of troubling inflation data and why the Fed’s reluctance to hike in October likely cements action in December. The team examines why improving market breadth may be…
Jeff DeGraffHost
Neil DuttaHost
Steve PavlickHostSteve DuttonhoferHostHarry
So in other words, if September were to be repeated for the full year, you would get four percent annualized inflation.
So to the extent-- Excuse me, not their estimate, their target, and it's ahead of their estimate, uh, for the year.
Um, but if you are skipping October because you want to skip October, it basically locks in December, right? Like, so, um, that's sort of how I would think about this.
I don't think it was wise to remove the optionality around October, which is what a number of the Fed officials did.
Um, but I do think, uh, you know, foregoing meetings, um, just 'cause, uh, opens up the risk that you ultimately have to do more later.
Um, and, you know, if you had to ask me, what is the risk, is it of them over-tightening or not doing enough? I would say it's probably that they, they end up overdoing it because they're not doing more upfront.
But the, the inflation data are, are a, you know, absolute train wreck, uh, still.
Um, and, uh, there's no-- Uh, there's very little evidence right now that, that there's, you know, that things are gonna turn around anytime soon.
I mean, um, you know, off the top of my head, I think there's still upward pressure from consumer electronics.
So in other words, if September were to be repeated for the full year, you would get four percent annualized inflation.
So to the extent-- Excuse me, not their estimate, their target, and it's ahead of their estimate, uh, for the year.
Um, but if you are skipping October because you want to skip October, it basically locks in December, right? Like, so, um, that's sort of how I would think about this.
I don't think it was wise to remove the optionality around October, which is what a number of the Fed officials did.
Um, but I do think, uh, you know, foregoing meetings, um, just 'cause, uh, opens up the risk that you ultimately have to do more later.
Um, and, you know, if you had to ask me, what is the risk, is it of them over-tightening or not doing enough? I would say it's probably that they, they end up overdoing it because they're not doing more upfront.
But the, the inflation data are, are a, you know, absolute train wreck, uh, still.
Um, and, uh, there's no-- Uh, there's very little evidence right now that, that there's, you know, that things are gonna turn around anytime soon.
I mean, um, you know, off the top of my head, I think there's still upward pressure from consumer electronics.
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