Oct 15, 2026 · 47 min · 13 segments
The return of the physical economy, the copper and power bottlenecks shaping the next commodity cycle, and why scarcity, security, and shifting policy are bringing Canada's energy and critical…
Heather Exner-PirotGuestLaura BakerHostIt's funny because it's a sentiment we hear a lot in investing of the idea like this time is different and that's can be kind of a dangerous thought.
So in this circumstance, is it truly like I guess how much of this is new demand or new factors versus just that cyclicality that you've seen in booms?
Yeah, I mean, so some of it is just very much falling, I think, in the cycle pattern.
In this case, it's obviously disruption in trade flows is really what's pushing a deglobalization from that hyperglobalization we had in the last phase.
And so what is the same and what is different? You know, a lot is the same, but what are the aspects that I think will make this one interesting is that you do have scarcity.
Like the 70s cycle, this one is probably more driven by scarcity than the last one and the first two, which was really about just increasing demand.
The world population is growing more slowly than it has in the past as a percentage, I think, certainly than compared to the last cycle.
And there are more disruptive factors than purely just growth, you know, post-World War II boom and that kind of a thing.
And then, you know, electrification has actually been a driver for a couple of cycles.
So, you know, this is, I would say, you know, the third of the last five cycles where you say, wow, electrification is driving this thing.
It's certainly air conditioning, which maybe is underappreciated that the world is warming, but obviously AI and data centers is just enormous buildup with tons of physical demand.
And that is different from the last boom where it was more software driven, where of course you did have the internet revolution.
And I got to visit a data center alley in Virginia last month, and you could just literally see copper, you know, like the walls had cladding of copper.
And there's no reason to doubt, you know, to understand why are we seeing copper at all time highs? Why is that likely to be a huge bottleneck? But I think everything related to electricity, so natural gas, uranium, iron, copper, all of those things, I think are going to have a wild ride in the coming years.
It's funny because it's a sentiment we hear a lot in investing of the idea like this time is different and that's can be kind of a dangerous thought.
So in this circumstance, is it truly like I guess how much of this is new demand or new factors versus just that cyclicality that you've seen in booms?
Yeah, I mean, so some of it is just very much falling, I think, in the cycle pattern.
In this case, it's obviously disruption in trade flows is really what's pushing a deglobalization from that hyperglobalization we had in the last phase.
And so what is the same and what is different? You know, a lot is the same, but what are the aspects that I think will make this one interesting is that you do have scarcity.
Like the 70s cycle, this one is probably more driven by scarcity than the last one and the first two, which was really about just increasing demand.
The world population is growing more slowly than it has in the past as a percentage, I think, certainly than compared to the last cycle.
And there are more disruptive factors than purely just growth, you know, post-World War II boom and that kind of a thing.
And then, you know, electrification has actually been a driver for a couple of cycles.
So, you know, this is, I would say, you know, the third of the last five cycles where you say, wow, electrification is driving this thing.
It's certainly air conditioning, which maybe is underappreciated that the world is warming, but obviously AI and data centers is just enormous buildup with tons of physical demand.
And that is different from the last boom where it was more software driven, where of course you did have the internet revolution.
And I got to visit a data center alley in Virginia last month, and you could just literally see copper, you know, like the walls had cladding of copper.
And there's no reason to doubt, you know, to understand why are we seeing copper at all time highs? Why is that likely to be a huge bottleneck? But I think everything related to electricity, so natural gas, uranium, iron, copper, all of those things, I think are going to have a wild ride in the coming years.
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