The Death of the Bookie: Why Prediction Markets are Eating Sports Betting

(0:00) Open (1:46) The Price of "Probably" (6:11) The Wisdom of the Crowd (16:40) The Rise of the "Event Market" (22:47) Insider Trading (27:48) Performance of These Markets (35:40) cj’s recommendation: The Big Short (2010) (37:37) Jeff’s Recommendation: Leaving Las Vegas (1995) Forget the "House" always winning - in 2026, the House is just a guy in a basement with a faster internet connection than you. This week, we’re looking at why platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are turning the sports world upside down. We’re moving away from fixed odds and into a world where the "price" of a touchdown updates faster than the ref can blow the whistle. Is it a "financial swap" or just a prop bet with a college degree? As the CFTC fights the states for control, the real action is in the locker room. So just how did prediction markets become the "dangerous loophole" for sports addicts? We’ll break down why these "event contracts" are just sports bets in a fancy suit and how 18-year-olds in states where gambling is illegal are using them to bypass the system. It’s a high-stakes game of peer-to-peer chicken where the most informed fan takes the bag and why more than two out of three trades on these platforms are now tied to a scoreboard. And remember: the number five is lucky, especially on a fifth-set tiebreak. The Polymarket Effect: How Prediction Markets Are Beating The Experts Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don't rewrite an Iran missile story | The Times of Israel The History of Prediction Markets: From Iowa Electronic Markets to Polymarket The Fed - Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets French police probe Polymarket Paris weather bet : NPR NPR went looking for Polymarket's Panama headquarters. It's elusive Send us a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠voice message⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! Nonsense is available ⁠here⁠.