Prediction market

We are.

I just like to see where the prediction markets are in terms of House and Senate.

Right now, let me do how many

people are reading, reading Nate Silver and Rickler politics.

I think that's kind of interesting.

Anyway, so I just – we like to check in on these things because – and I think, Chuck, you – I want you to – you correct me if you disagree.

My view on these prediction markets effectively is it's another data point.

It's a data point that's – It is a crowdsourcing of the polls, okay? Of the, of the poll, of- The

New Jersey's Attorney General Jennifer Davenport has filed for certiorari to ask the Supreme Court of the United States whether prediction market sports contracts are legal or violate state sports betting laws.

It's a hotly anticipated case which could make or break a multi-billion dollar sector and or reshape the online gambling sector in the United States.

So is judgment day on the horizon for prediction markets? How will this saga end? welcome back to iGaming daily supported by Optimove the creator of positionalist marketing and the number one player engagement solution for sports betting and iGaming operators i'm charlie horner and to discuss all of this with me today is sbc america's news editor tom nightingale tom it's the one we've been waiting for um it's a big one today how are you doing Yeah, I'm very well.

Thank you.

Yeah.

I should I feel like I should put a disclaimer at the start of this podcast just to confirm that neither of us.

I don't speak for you, Charlie, but neither of us are lawyers.

Neither of us are prediction markets related attorneys.

Will Donald Trump ever finish his first love, the border wall? We went to the original farmer's market in Los Angeles to ask about that and so much more.

Your favorite segment and mine, Prediction Markets.

It's coming up next.

Hey, what's up, guys? It's Hayley Bailey.

What's your name?

Courtney.

Okay, so I come to markets to ask people their predictions because I don't believe in those online prediction markets.

Can I ask you a couple predictions? Yeah.

But hopefully not.

And, you know, we'll also talk about prediction markets somewhere in

there.

Yes, yes, the other end of the world.

It's that time again.

What time is it? This

week in Prediction Markets, complete

with our very own Sting.

So coming into prediction markets, what was surprising to you initially that jumped out at you when you just started going through all this data that's out there, in particular for Polymarket?

Yeah, I think like I followed just like a learning process as everybody in the space to understand that like British market is not too new.

Like there was experiment back in the DeFi summer day, like from Augur and there was like really well thought design for Oracle and everything is not even better today.

You know, like I think it's a very interesting market.

Was there anything that stood out to you in like parsing the data? Did you have to do any kind of your own filtering in order to get maybe like the most accurate number?

Yeah.

So that's another like huge, I guess, like not debate, but like just always have to like bring it up kind of nuances to whenever we talk about volume on British market, because British market is a binary contract.

So there is people buying yes, there is people selling yes, there's people buying no, there's people selling no.

And he has just been kicked off of Kalshi forever.

The Predictive Markets website, he is banned for life from Kalshi forever.

For why?

Because apparently after he got his sentence commuted by Donald Trump, there was a bet that you could make on Kalshi as to whether or not George Santos was going to appear at the president's inauguration.

Are we on the fast track to the Supreme Court? Plus, he broke a story about boosters, essentially, for LSU.

Using prediction markets to hedge on whether or not Lane Kiffin would hit certain contract bonuses to the tune of $3 million.

So we will get to that on the program coming up here today with Daniel O'Boyle.

We will talk about football a lot.

That inevitably is where this is going.

There's been so much disagreement between different courts.

The Supreme Court is going to have to settle whether or not prediction markets are allowed to offer sports.

And, you know, initially, Kelsey got that Third Circuit ruling.