Episode 63: Will It All Fall Apart At Once? With Jared Dillian

But I will, but I will ask you how you're feeling, and maybe, maybe a question that came in already from No One Knows Thy Self is a good place to kick off.

Um, they're asking, "Where is the sentiment around this upcoming earnings season? Is the sell-off in tech," which by the way, US stocks ended lower today, NASDAQ taking it on the chin down about 1.5%, "Is the sell-off in tech from investors, is it just them taking gains ahead of earnings? Are they setting up for poor guidance?" Like, what's the vibe going into earnings? How are you feeling about that?

Um, well, me personally, I had a great, uh, first quarter and I had a terrible second quarter, which is kind of continuing into the third quarter.

Um, I, you know, w- if I were to put a finger on sentiment, I, it, you know, somebody forwarded me some really interesting tidbits today about where sentiment is.

Hmm.

Okay? So retail volume on down days is three and a half times higher than up days.

Wow.

So it's buy the dip.

Like, people are just buying the dip.

Now, the, just for a little historical context, volume, retail volume on down days is always higher-

Mm-hmm

...

but this is exponentially higher than any other period in time, right? So people, it, it, it, I mean, even on a day like today, like, we started the war again, right? Like, so we're back at war, we're doing the blockade.

The S&P's down about 80 basis points.

You know, on a, on a normal day, the stock market would be down a lot more.

You can see it in the price action.

Mm-hmm.

There's more coming into the market, right? So give you some more tidbits.

Leveraged ETFs have four and a half times more assets than they did in 2020.

It's 218 billion in assets, leveraged ETFs.

So at Citadel, the average ex- exploration of an option that they trade is three days.

A third of them are zero DTE options.

So retail is the underlying bid in the market.

Absolutely.

Mm-hmm.

But I will, but I will ask you how you're feeling, and maybe, maybe a question that came in already from No One Knows Thy Self is a good place to kick off.

Um, they're asking, "Where is the sentiment around this upcoming earnings season? Is the sell-off in tech," which by the way, US stocks ended lower today, NASDAQ taking it on the chin down about 1.5%, "Is the sell-off in tech from investors, is it just them taking gains ahead of earnings? Are they setting up for poor guidance?" Like, what's the vibe going into earnings? How are you feeling about that?

Um, well, me personally, I had a great, uh, first quarter and I had a terrible second quarter, which is kind of continuing into the third quarter.

Um, I, you know, w- if I were to put a finger on sentiment, I, it, you know, somebody forwarded me some really interesting tidbits today about where sentiment is.

Hmm.

Okay? So retail volume on down days is three and a half times higher than up days.

Wow.

So it's buy the dip.

Like, people are just buying the dip.

Now, the, just for a little historical context, volume, retail volume on down days is always higher-

Mm-hmm

...

but this is exponentially higher than any other period in time, right? So people, it, it, it, I mean, even on a day like today, like, we started the war again, right? Like, so we're back at war, we're doing the blockade.

The S&P's down about 80 basis points.

You know, on a, on a normal day, the stock market would be down a lot more.

You can see it in the price action.

Mm-hmm.

There's more coming into the market, right? So give you some more tidbits.

Leveraged ETFs have four and a half times more assets than they did in 2020.

It's 218 billion in assets, leveraged ETFs.

So at Citadel, the average ex- exploration of an option that they trade is three days.

A third of them are zero DTE options.

So retail is the underlying bid in the market.

Absolutely.

Mm-hmm.