The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. Nobody Is Buying Puts. Are You Watching the Wrong Market?

So as we wrap up, Matt, what I haven't really been thinking about going forward, like this last segment, we like to think about what we're thinking about going into the next month.

This AI slowdown is very interesting to me.

It's obviously interesting on many levels that we won't get into here, but just what it means for the market, because you've kind of had two different things going on with AI.

On one hand, you have just a massive amount of spending today.

And that massive amount of spending is stimulative to the economy.

It's inflationary.

And then you also kind of have the ROI of AI, like how much value is being created.

And I think it's interesting to think about this from both of those perspectives.

And one of the things that struck me right away is, These models have come so far that actually like getting these things into the economy is going to take a long time.

So even if we don't have any new models for a really long time, it seems like we still have a lot, you know, we know how slow, like we're a small company.

It takes us a while like to get this stuff through.

Like these large organizations have taken up a really long time to get it in here.

So I'm just thinking about it from both of those perspectives.

Yeah.

How will this actually, if we do slow down, if we don't push the frontier as much with the models, how will it affect the near term of all this money we're spending on AI and how it will also affect kind of the ROI and the flow through to the economy?

And let's be clear, a slowdown in growth and the rate of change of growth is not the same thing as a contraction, not the same thing as shrinking.

I think one of the hardest parts to think about this is, so I'm right there with you on the adoption piece.

This is the adoption life cycle that we've all seen the image, we know the graph.

You have the early adopters, you have the people who start to get in, and then we have to cross that proverbial chasm for mass use.

it's going to take time for this to come into this, come into the broader system.

What's fascinating, though, is along the way, we're likely going to experience a hiccup where that rate of change in the growth comes down.

And the question is, is that rate of change going to come down or are we going to keep tip negative in any way, shape or form? And it could be at lots of levels that we tip negative and stuff gets ugly because in that accelerating growth curve that we've been on up to this point, we've added a lot of debt, put a lot of money into building out data centers, a lot of money into some of these other places.

And we're feeling the strain of that right

now.

This is a hard one to, like always, it's a really hard one to handicap what this is going to look like.

So as we wrap up, Matt, what I haven't really been thinking about going forward, like this last segment, we like to think about what we're thinking about going into the next month.

This AI slowdown is very interesting to me.

It's obviously interesting on many levels that we won't get into here, but just what it means for the market, because you've kind of had two different things going on with AI.

On one hand, you have just a massive amount of spending today.

And that massive amount of spending is stimulative to the economy.

It's inflationary.

And then you also kind of have the ROI of AI, like how much value is being created.

And I think it's interesting to think about this from both of those perspectives.

And one of the things that struck me right away is, These models have come so far that actually like getting these things into the economy is going to take a long time.

So even if we don't have any new models for a really long time, it seems like we still have a lot, you know, we know how slow, like we're a small company.

It takes us a while like to get this stuff through.

Like these large organizations have taken up a really long time to get it in here.

So I'm just thinking about it from both of those perspectives.

Yeah.

How will this actually, if we do slow down, if we don't push the frontier as much with the models, how will it affect the near term of all this money we're spending on AI and how it will also affect kind of the ROI and the flow through to the economy?

And let's be clear, a slowdown in growth and the rate of change of growth is not the same thing as a contraction, not the same thing as shrinking.

I think one of the hardest parts to think about this is, so I'm right there with you on the adoption piece.

This is the adoption life cycle that we've all seen the image, we know the graph.

You have the early adopters, you have the people who start to get in, and then we have to cross that proverbial chasm for mass use.

it's going to take time for this to come into this, come into the broader system.

What's fascinating, though, is along the way, we're likely going to experience a hiccup where that rate of change in the growth comes down.

And the question is, is that rate of change going to come down or are we going to keep tip negative in any way, shape or form? And it could be at lots of levels that we tip negative and stuff gets ugly because in that accelerating growth curve that we've been on up to this point, we've added a lot of debt, put a lot of money into building out data centers, a lot of money into some of these other places.

And we're feeling the strain of that right

now.

This is a hard one to, like always, it's a really hard one to handicap what this is going to look like.