What Could Move the Interest Rate Needle? (Episode 149)

Yeah, it seems like we had a very good start.

We thought – a little unexpected for me actually.

At the beginning of the year, I thought, okay, well, we are heading down to below six a little too fast.

But of course, what happened at the end of February, the war started.

and start pushing rates up.

Now, the rates, 30-year fixed rates has been hovering around, probably around 6.75, 6.8 or so for 30-year fixed rate.

depending on what source you use, but 6.75, 6.8 is about right.

And we thought, okay, well, maybe with a ceasefire back in April or May, the rates would come down, but it never came down.

It actually came down maybe a little bit, but then it bounced.

Briefly, yeah.

Yeah, and then it went back up because, of course, the ceasefire only lasted for maybe, what, two weeks, three weeks-ish or so? And then we started seeing all of these military strike between two countries.

So as of now, we're still at a very elevated level.

Let me put it that way.

Yeah, hanging out in that kind of 6.6, 6.7 percent range.

I think last week it was like 6.56 or something like that.

So a little bit higher than we were at the beginning of the year.

I hate to say I told you so.

And if I told you I could have predicted this earlier.

war.

But we've been saying for years to not wait for rates.

And I think that's just been borne out yet again, that all of the uncertainty and what ifs that can come down the pike tend to have negative impacts on rates, not positive ones.

And I just think the likelihood for the Fed to come in and save the day with a ton of rate cuts isn't there.

What about just on the kind of balance sheet side? Because there's been a lot of different movements happening there, treasury buybacks.

We've got the US debt, which has reached an all-time high.

It's a pretty staggering $40 trillion.

Yeah, it seems like we had a very good start.

We thought – a little unexpected for me actually.

At the beginning of the year, I thought, okay, well, we are heading down to below six a little too fast.

But of course, what happened at the end of February, the war started.

and start pushing rates up.

Now, the rates, 30-year fixed rates has been hovering around, probably around 6.75, 6.8 or so for 30-year fixed rate.

depending on what source you use, but 6.75, 6.8 is about right.

And we thought, okay, well, maybe with a ceasefire back in April or May, the rates would come down, but it never came down.

It actually came down maybe a little bit, but then it bounced.

Briefly, yeah.

Yeah, and then it went back up because, of course, the ceasefire only lasted for maybe, what, two weeks, three weeks-ish or so? And then we started seeing all of these military strike between two countries.

So as of now, we're still at a very elevated level.

Let me put it that way.

Yeah, hanging out in that kind of 6.6, 6.7 percent range.

I think last week it was like 6.56 or something like that.

So a little bit higher than we were at the beginning of the year.

I hate to say I told you so.

And if I told you I could have predicted this earlier.

war.

But we've been saying for years to not wait for rates.

And I think that's just been borne out yet again, that all of the uncertainty and what ifs that can come down the pike tend to have negative impacts on rates, not positive ones.

And I just think the likelihood for the Fed to come in and save the day with a ton of rate cuts isn't there.

What about just on the kind of balance sheet side? Because there's been a lot of different movements happening there, treasury buybacks.

We've got the US debt, which has reached an all-time high.

It's a pretty staggering $40 trillion.