Jul 17, 2026 · 28 min · 13 segments
The July 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting (NAFB) Summer Showcase in Kansas City, Missouri, features agricultural analysts Mike…
Arlan SudermanGuestTodd GleasonHostMike ZuzoloGuestYeah, that's a good way to talk about it, Todd, because there's so much you could get wrapped up in.
I think it goes back to the idea that this is a back to the future type commodity market, where we're heading back into the 1980s and having to look at, again, the Middle East and the rough waters there, s- literally speaking, in the Strait of Hormuz, and also, uh, looking at what's happening in Russia and Ukraine.
And right now, while we talk about and watch the European markets lead our grain markets, we'll watch the US weather.
But I think we're gonna end up coming back around to China, see what they do in terms of buying crude oil, see what they do in terms of buying US beans, and see how the trade relationship develops as President Xi comes over here to the United States for a state visit in September.
Do those purchases, when they're made, offer, depending on where we start from at the low end, an opportunity that producers really have to think about because they are likely to be, or have been at least in the last couple of times, very short-lived rallies?
Yeah, and I think that's the key, is they've been very short-lived, and you're 100% right.
My assessment has been and will continue to be, let's not rely upon Chinese demand.
Let's rely upon higher interest rates for longer, commodity inflation, and let's rely upon weather and supply.
But at the end of the day, I don't think this is a demand-driven market for soybeans, especially unless you start talking about the bean oil side of the equation.
We've gotten more clarification on 45 Z, but can we blend that much biofuel, and can we get those plants up and running? And can Europe and the major importers be able to help us with that? Those are tall orders right now, so I'm inclined to think that even bean oil is at the top end of the range at this stage.
So it really goes back to weather and supply at this stage for higher highs when it comes to soybeans.
Limited by simple capacity to, to create the bean oil in the United States, crushing capacity.
Crushing capacity, and one thing that I was not aware of until I did some digger deeping, uh, digger- deeper diving, was the idea that you crush it, and then you have to blend it into biofuel to meet the 45 Z requirements, which that seems to be a pretty tough order.
There, there was a study done not long ago that also brought up the idea that, um, the, the biofuel demand is already taking up about 5% of fertilizer usage.
Yeah, that's a good way to talk about it, Todd, because there's so much you could get wrapped up in.
I think it goes back to the idea that this is a back to the future type commodity market, where we're heading back into the 1980s and having to look at, again, the Middle East and the rough waters there, s- literally speaking, in the Strait of Hormuz, and also, uh, looking at what's happening in Russia and Ukraine.
And right now, while we talk about and watch the European markets lead our grain markets, we'll watch the US weather.
But I think we're gonna end up coming back around to China, see what they do in terms of buying crude oil, see what they do in terms of buying US beans, and see how the trade relationship develops as President Xi comes over here to the United States for a state visit in September.
Do those purchases, when they're made, offer, depending on where we start from at the low end, an opportunity that producers really have to think about because they are likely to be, or have been at least in the last couple of times, very short-lived rallies?
Yeah, and I think that's the key, is they've been very short-lived, and you're 100% right.
My assessment has been and will continue to be, let's not rely upon Chinese demand.
Let's rely upon higher interest rates for longer, commodity inflation, and let's rely upon weather and supply.
But at the end of the day, I don't think this is a demand-driven market for soybeans, especially unless you start talking about the bean oil side of the equation.
We've gotten more clarification on 45 Z, but can we blend that much biofuel, and can we get those plants up and running? And can Europe and the major importers be able to help us with that? Those are tall orders right now, so I'm inclined to think that even bean oil is at the top end of the range at this stage.
So it really goes back to weather and supply at this stage for higher highs when it comes to soybeans.
Limited by simple capacity to, to create the bean oil in the United States, crushing capacity.
Crushing capacity, and one thing that I was not aware of until I did some digger deeping, uh, digger- deeper diving, was the idea that you crush it, and then you have to blend it into biofuel to meet the 45 Z requirements, which that seems to be a pretty tough order.
There, there was a study done not long ago that also brought up the idea that, um, the, the biofuel demand is already taking up about 5% of fertilizer usage.
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