It's a model, a model that's built on a very specific set of assumptions, and when those assumptions change, the outcome changes, and sometimes dramatically.
In fact, there's research showing that the failure rate of the 4% rule can jump from less than 5% to over 50%, depending on when you retire.
Now, that doesn't mean the 4% rule is wrong or it's not helpful as a starting point.
It's just based on average conditions, and if you base your retirement planning on a rule with average conditions, you'll likely get an average result, until you don't.
When you retire into expensive markets, the math changes, and the probability of success can drop dramatically.
In fact, the original Trinity studies showed that the 4% rule withdrawal rate worked about 95% of the time over 30 years, but that was based on average historical conditions.
When researchers like Wade Pfau adjusted for high market evaluations using metrics like cyclical-adjusted price-earnings ratio, or the CAPE ratio, the results changed dramatically.
So today, I want to unpack what's really going on here because if you're an incorporated business owner or a high-income professional and you're getting closer to reaching your financial freedom goal, this isn't just theory.
Simple rules are great for getting started, but they are dangerous when you rely on them blindly.
Most financial advice out there is built for the average Canadian, a T4 employee, steady middle income, consistent contributions for over 30 years, hoping to retire on less at age 65.
Now, you're investing significantly more than you were when you were younger, and your runway to your financial freedom goals are much shorter than 30 years.
That changes everything because when your timeline compresses, the margin for error disappears.
It's a model, a model that's built on a very specific set of assumptions, and when those assumptions change, the outcome changes, and sometimes dramatically.
In fact, there's research showing that the failure rate of the 4% rule can jump from less than 5% to over 50%, depending on when you retire.
Now, that doesn't mean the 4% rule is wrong or it's not helpful as a starting point.
It's just based on average conditions, and if you base your retirement planning on a rule with average conditions, you'll likely get an average result, until you don't.
When you retire into expensive markets, the math changes, and the probability of success can drop dramatically.
In fact, the original Trinity studies showed that the 4% rule withdrawal rate worked about 95% of the time over 30 years, but that was based on average historical conditions.
When researchers like Wade Pfau adjusted for high market evaluations using metrics like cyclical-adjusted price-earnings ratio, or the CAPE ratio, the results changed dramatically.
So today, I want to unpack what's really going on here because if you're an incorporated business owner or a high-income professional and you're getting closer to reaching your financial freedom goal, this isn't just theory.
Simple rules are great for getting started, but they are dangerous when you rely on them blindly.
Most financial advice out there is built for the average Canadian, a T4 employee, steady middle income, consistent contributions for over 30 years, hoping to retire on less at age 65.
Now, you're investing significantly more than you were when you were younger, and your runway to your financial freedom goals are much shorter than 30 years.
That changes everything because when your timeline compresses, the margin for error disappears.
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