Sep 8, 2026 · 40 min · 13 segments
Should prediction markets allow people to bet on clinical trials and drug approvals? When Kalshi introduced these markets, David Tsai launched a petition calling for them to stop—placing him at the…
But it's moved into something lately that I don't think that we ever expected.
I mean, when the fires were burning here in Los Angeles, people were online betting on how many acres would go, right? How many homes? And we're talking about this is real money on other people's worst day.
Before we get into what you did, I just want to understand what is a prediction market and what actually are platforms like Kalshi and PolyMarket?
So, I mean, I think prediction markets are just another fancy word for a gambling platform, right? It's no different than you going out and playing roulette and spinning the wheel and putting a bet on certain numbers or black or red, right? I think it initially started out, you know, people placing fourth bets.
But like you said, more and more, it's becoming kind of a wild, wild west of just pure gambling.
And you brought up the fact that people were gambling on the wildfires, all these other things that just seemingly are random acts of God.
So I think the term itself, prediction market, is a misnomer and They kind of hide behind that, you know, as a way to kind of justify.
So like people are making bets in their bed or while they're having dinner with their family and what used to be confined to sports.
But it's moved into something lately that I don't think that we ever expected.
I mean, when the fires were burning here in Los Angeles, people were online betting on how many acres would go, right? How many homes? And we're talking about this is real money on other people's worst day.
Before we get into what you did, I just want to understand what is a prediction market and what actually are platforms like Kalshi and PolyMarket?
So, I mean, I think prediction markets are just another fancy word for a gambling platform, right? It's no different than you going out and playing roulette and spinning the wheel and putting a bet on certain numbers or black or red, right? I think it initially started out, you know, people placing fourth bets.
But like you said, more and more, it's becoming kind of a wild, wild west of just pure gambling.
And you brought up the fact that people were gambling on the wildfires, all these other things that just seemingly are random acts of God.
So I think the term itself, prediction market, is a misnomer and They kind of hide behind that, you know, as a way to kind of justify.
So like people are making bets in their bed or while they're having dinner with their family and what used to be confined to sports.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.