Jul 1, 2026 · 25 min · 11 segments
Arab Digest editor William Law's guest this week is the Iran expert Dr Sanam Vakil. Their conversation focuses on the challenges facing any sort of a peace deal that emerges from the current talks…
William LawHost
So, you know, first of all, I share the commentary at consensus that the U.S. did not prepare strategically for this war.
The US administration laid out a plan for a quick victory, and clearly after four or five days, it was abundantly obvious to all of us that this was all going terribly wrong.
So if you look at it in those terms, coupled with the fact that the objectives of regime change, let alone military degradation of the Islamic Republic were not achieved, yes, the US did not perform very well.
And of course, they did not anticipate the most obvious closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
It still surrounds the region and sits on the other side of the Persian Gulf and continue to wield economic tools to pressure the Islamic Republic as well.
The only way this becomes either a victory or even a loss for either side, depending on how you look at it, is if they can convert this moment into a meaningful agreement.
The United States is still has military leverage and economic leverage over Iran and Iran can still pressure the United States over the Strait of Hormuz.
Yeah, I think you're right about the strength, the might of the American military presence, that that should not be disregarded.
And equally, the state of Hormuz remains a very strong card for the Iranians to play.
But yeah, I think the assumption that this was a massive defeat for Trump is perhaps overplayed.
So, you know, first of all, I share the commentary at consensus that the U.S. did not prepare strategically for this war.
The US administration laid out a plan for a quick victory, and clearly after four or five days, it was abundantly obvious to all of us that this was all going terribly wrong.
So if you look at it in those terms, coupled with the fact that the objectives of regime change, let alone military degradation of the Islamic Republic were not achieved, yes, the US did not perform very well.
And of course, they did not anticipate the most obvious closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
It still surrounds the region and sits on the other side of the Persian Gulf and continue to wield economic tools to pressure the Islamic Republic as well.
The only way this becomes either a victory or even a loss for either side, depending on how you look at it, is if they can convert this moment into a meaningful agreement.
The United States is still has military leverage and economic leverage over Iran and Iran can still pressure the United States over the Strait of Hormuz.
Yeah, I think you're right about the strength, the might of the American military presence, that that should not be disregarded.
And equally, the state of Hormuz remains a very strong card for the Iranians to play.
But yeah, I think the assumption that this was a massive defeat for Trump is perhaps overplayed.
The rest of this transcript — segmented and speaker-labeled, so you land on the exact moment something was said
Search every transcript — by keyword, by phrase, or by meaning, across every show Radar indexes
Trends — what is surging across podcasts, measured against its own baseline
Alerts — when a name you follow appears in a newly indexed episode
No account is needed to search Radar.
