The Repeating Pattern Behind Outrageous Tech Promises

So why did you write that?

Well, my feeling is if I look at, and I can go back to the microchip because it coincides with when I decided to be an entrepreneur, so 1974, and the word microchip was just being used for the first time.

It wasn't what it was called when it was invented.

It was called integrated circuit.

1950s, 1960s.

But integrated circuit is not a sexy marketing name.

You have to have a little bit more conciseness and a little bit more what I would say that you're creating a new concept.

And microchip was neat.

It was small and it was a chip.

And they were making all sorts of predictions back then that this was going to change everything.

And my sense is when people predict that it's going to change everything, it means it's going to change some things, but mostly unpredictable.

Over the years, I've just kind of figured out, well, who made the money on the new things? And there's a pattern to it that basically the people who profit most by something new are actually consumers.

It's about 70% of all the money that's made is really by consumers who have a new capability, but they apply the new capability, not the whole capability, but the new capability to something that they're already committed to.

They're trying to achieve greater efficiency, they're trying to create greater effectiveness, greater profitability, and they just use part of the new thing to actually do what they're already doing better or do what they're already doing bigger.

But the people who actually create the new thing oftentimes aren't the winners.

Mm-hmm.

And I think they have an awareness that they bet the ranch on something new and they're so committed and they're in such severe competition with everyone that they have to become more extreme in their marketing claims about what they're doing.

whether that has anything to do with what people are looking for or not.