WHERE I STAND with Richard French
Oct 28, 2026 · 7 min · 5 segments
Democrats need to pick up four seats in the House and Senate to gain majorities, and while the latter seemed improbable a month or so ago, both are not only possible, they’re probable. Richard reviews…
I preface one of that to share with a standard caveat that early voting data is hardly empirical.
That said, some very clear trends have emerged, and if anything, the consistencies in polling suggest public opinion is hardening.
Now, before I break down the math, with less than a week to go, here are the big takeaways.
And while the latter seemed improbable a month or so ago, both are now not only possible, they're probable.
Turnout is surging in key battleground states, places like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, which historically indicates the party not in power will do very well.
As a point of reference, the early votes this year are pacing well ahead of four years ago, with election experts citing widespread public frustration with the economy as fueling that turnout.
Now, of those early returns, registered Democrats are accounting for nearly 50% more than registered Republicans.
Worrying GOP officials that a red undertow or Republican voters stay home period could be a November reality.
Also, mail-in voting, despite Trump's best efforts to discredit, remains resilient, even while outpacing last midterms.
As you'll see in a moment, by every metric, Democratic optimism and Republican panic, they seem warranted.
I preface one of that to share with a standard caveat that early voting data is hardly empirical.
That said, some very clear trends have emerged, and if anything, the consistencies in polling suggest public opinion is hardening.
Now, before I break down the math, with less than a week to go, here are the big takeaways.
And while the latter seemed improbable a month or so ago, both are now not only possible, they're probable.
Turnout is surging in key battleground states, places like Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, which historically indicates the party not in power will do very well.
As a point of reference, the early votes this year are pacing well ahead of four years ago, with election experts citing widespread public frustration with the economy as fueling that turnout.
Now, of those early returns, registered Democrats are accounting for nearly 50% more than registered Republicans.
Worrying GOP officials that a red undertow or Republican voters stay home period could be a November reality.
Also, mail-in voting, despite Trump's best efforts to discredit, remains resilient, even while outpacing last midterms.
As you'll see in a moment, by every metric, Democratic optimism and Republican panic, they seem warranted.
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