Oct 13, 2026 · 46 min · 10 segments
What makes a trend “mega”- and has the term become too loosely used to be useful? In this episode of *Using the Future*, host Toke Hanghøj goes behind the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies’ new…
Casper Skovgaard PetersenGuest
Toke HanghøjHostOne, it's been five years or so since we did our last megatrend report, so we felt, uh, a, a, a refresh was in order to revisit the trends, see where-- which ones needed updating, um, and which ones, um, no longer held up or which new ones might make the list.
Um, apart from that, we wanted to explore sort of the applicability of megatrends, if we could get a step deeper than how they're commonly used, if we could find new ways to apply them, new ways to look at the intersection between megatrends.
And then finally, uh, this question about, um, uh, untangling megatrends as I think we'll get into, or Simon will probably talk about.
But this question about how, uh, we can address this, this conceptual drift or this-- we can-- if we can salvage megatrends, let's put it that way, because we, we did feel that they needed salvaging.
Yeah, Simon, I know that, that that's been a lot of the work that you've done on this report.
Yeah, even like all the way back to, to the inception of the tool in, in nineteen eighty-two, the use has just, just been so arbitrary.
Um, people, organizations, they use megatrends for whatever they find is mega important right now, often from a very, very operational vantage point.
And we're seeing also megatrend, the term being used for stuff that's currently mega trending, right? Something that takes up a lot of attention in, in the present moment without really talking about megatrends as these deep structural forces that shapes societies, that shapes people, that shapes industries, uh, over time.
And you even found some numbers to, uh, to back that claim up, that there's been a conceptual drift.
Yeah, [chuckles] I think, I think that, that's what got me going in, in, in the very first, uh, in the beginning here.
I was reading a report, um, quite extensive meta report, um, that was published a few years back, an academic paper where they were looking across loads of reports, academic reports, but also sort of more gray literature megatrends reports, where they found that-- I even noted the numbers down here because it was quite significant.
They found that seventy-five percent out of two hundred and sixty-seven reviewed megatrend reports, they, they don't define what a megatrend is.
And at the same time, seventy-one percent of the studies did not explicitly report the method behind, the approach behind them framing these megatrends that they were then working with.
To me, that's outrageous numbers, and that really is-- Well, we can sit here and talk about a conceptual drift and, uh, and sort of be on our high horse, but I think this is very, very strong evidence that it's not just something you talk about.
Let's, for the people who perhaps don't know what megatrends are for, let, let's go back a, a few steps.
And Martin, can you explain the, the origin of megatrends and, and how we should think of, of megatrends as a, as a method or a tool?
One, it's been five years or so since we did our last megatrend report, so we felt, uh, a, a, a refresh was in order to revisit the trends, see where-- which ones needed updating, um, and which ones, um, no longer held up or which new ones might make the list.
Um, apart from that, we wanted to explore sort of the applicability of megatrends, if we could get a step deeper than how they're commonly used, if we could find new ways to apply them, new ways to look at the intersection between megatrends.
And then finally, uh, this question about, um, uh, untangling megatrends as I think we'll get into, or Simon will probably talk about.
But this question about how, uh, we can address this, this conceptual drift or this-- we can-- if we can salvage megatrends, let's put it that way, because we, we did feel that they needed salvaging.
Yeah, Simon, I know that, that that's been a lot of the work that you've done on this report.
Yeah, even like all the way back to, to the inception of the tool in, in nineteen eighty-two, the use has just, just been so arbitrary.
Um, people, organizations, they use megatrends for whatever they find is mega important right now, often from a very, very operational vantage point.
And we're seeing also megatrend, the term being used for stuff that's currently mega trending, right? Something that takes up a lot of attention in, in the present moment without really talking about megatrends as these deep structural forces that shapes societies, that shapes people, that shapes industries, uh, over time.
And you even found some numbers to, uh, to back that claim up, that there's been a conceptual drift.
Yeah, [chuckles] I think, I think that, that's what got me going in, in, in the very first, uh, in the beginning here.
I was reading a report, um, quite extensive meta report, um, that was published a few years back, an academic paper where they were looking across loads of reports, academic reports, but also sort of more gray literature megatrends reports, where they found that-- I even noted the numbers down here because it was quite significant.
They found that seventy-five percent out of two hundred and sixty-seven reviewed megatrend reports, they, they don't define what a megatrend is.
And at the same time, seventy-one percent of the studies did not explicitly report the method behind, the approach behind them framing these megatrends that they were then working with.
To me, that's outrageous numbers, and that really is-- Well, we can sit here and talk about a conceptual drift and, uh, and sort of be on our high horse, but I think this is very, very strong evidence that it's not just something you talk about.
Let's, for the people who perhaps don't know what megatrends are for, let, let's go back a, a few steps.
And Martin, can you explain the, the origin of megatrends and, and how we should think of, of megatrends as a, as a method or a tool?
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