Jul 16, 2026 · 59 min · 11 segments
The Tactical Edge Podcast with Raj Bhuyan returns for Episode 9 with a wide-angle look at today’s investment landscape, challenging listeners to zoom out from the daily headlines and ask a bigger…
And as you can see, we've got a lot of things happening in the world, a lot of variables moving in a host of different directions.
And when the noise is ratcheted up to such a degree, we would normally think that the best way to kind of handle that is to kind of take a step back and zoom out.
once we get a higher elevation we can maybe perhaps see the landscape from a different perspective and get a better sense of exactly what we're trying to do in the first place and maybe get some insight into in terms of what might be happening so let's look at this idea through this contextualization lens contextualization matters from our standpoint.
And the real question that is really in front of us today is, are we still in this late stage bull market where you have leadership that may be vacillating a little bit, but the leadership pretty much is still in place.
We could be in the eighth or ninth inning, but sometimes in the eighth or ninth inning, the team bats around a couple of times and maybe that eighth inning lasts an hour or two.
Or are we perhaps already in the transition from a rotational standpoint into a new cycle phase? That's the question.
We've been making this case for some time, and honestly, nothing works in a straight line.
And as the data streams play out, we will hopefully gain the confidence in terms of how this may all settle in the long run.
Because we do think the bull market that we've experienced the last 17 plus years has really clouded that and has really given people a false impression, perhaps, in terms of how much risk is inherent or how much energy is inherent inside their portfolio construction.
And the question is, what lane are you in? And we think a lot of folks out there are really in the express lane and really not aware of that.
And of course, there are time periods where being in the wrong lane can really lead to some trouble for instance in the 1960s to the early 80s the s p 500 only made about a percent eight on a price adjusted basis six percent including dividends and the market spent more than a quarter of its time in quad d this is very different than the environment we've experienced over the last decade and a half And the question is, is this as good as it's going to get? We've asked this question before, and quite honestly, it's gotten a little better over the past couple of months with a couple of hiccups along the way.
We're now looking at an S&P 500 on a price basis has annualized at almost 15% a year for over 17 years.
Now, if we drag this out over the past 100 years, only a few weeks in late 1999 did the stock market have a better 17-year annualized return than we have today.
We're about 8.5% over the standard return in terms of a price standpoint over the last 100 years.
If we can get one point across in this podcast, it's to really have folks appreciate your just how good it's been.
And as you can see, we've got a lot of things happening in the world, a lot of variables moving in a host of different directions.
And when the noise is ratcheted up to such a degree, we would normally think that the best way to kind of handle that is to kind of take a step back and zoom out.
once we get a higher elevation we can maybe perhaps see the landscape from a different perspective and get a better sense of exactly what we're trying to do in the first place and maybe get some insight into in terms of what might be happening so let's look at this idea through this contextualization lens contextualization matters from our standpoint.
And the real question that is really in front of us today is, are we still in this late stage bull market where you have leadership that may be vacillating a little bit, but the leadership pretty much is still in place.
We could be in the eighth or ninth inning, but sometimes in the eighth or ninth inning, the team bats around a couple of times and maybe that eighth inning lasts an hour or two.
Or are we perhaps already in the transition from a rotational standpoint into a new cycle phase? That's the question.
We've been making this case for some time, and honestly, nothing works in a straight line.
And as the data streams play out, we will hopefully gain the confidence in terms of how this may all settle in the long run.
Because we do think the bull market that we've experienced the last 17 plus years has really clouded that and has really given people a false impression, perhaps, in terms of how much risk is inherent or how much energy is inherent inside their portfolio construction.
And the question is, what lane are you in? And we think a lot of folks out there are really in the express lane and really not aware of that.
And of course, there are time periods where being in the wrong lane can really lead to some trouble for instance in the 1960s to the early 80s the s p 500 only made about a percent eight on a price adjusted basis six percent including dividends and the market spent more than a quarter of its time in quad d this is very different than the environment we've experienced over the last decade and a half And the question is, is this as good as it's going to get? We've asked this question before, and quite honestly, it's gotten a little better over the past couple of months with a couple of hiccups along the way.
We're now looking at an S&P 500 on a price basis has annualized at almost 15% a year for over 17 years.
Now, if we drag this out over the past 100 years, only a few weeks in late 1999 did the stock market have a better 17-year annualized return than we have today.
We're about 8.5% over the standard return in terms of a price standpoint over the last 100 years.
If we can get one point across in this podcast, it's to really have folks appreciate your just how good it's been.
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