Episode 105: Hormuz flips again and gasoline cracks get smashed

We can.

I mean, we've got a lot to unpack today, obviously.

And Abhishek, you're going to take off a bit more detail on this deal, I guess.

But it is a reported deal of some sort.

To put it bluntly, as we all know by now, it remains very binary.

in terms of the headlines.

So the price goes up when the deal is off and the price goes down when the deal is on.

And nobody can really judge in a very safe way that's tradable what's going to happen in the next 24 hours.

There has been a joint statement.

It's under review.

As far as I can see from reading between the lines, it doesn't really involve the U.S., officially at this stage.

It doesn't necessarily mean that Iran intends on restoring full flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

And the sort of statements coming out to the US camp yesterday, Trump said he'll see what happens.

Vance said negotiations are going to be very messy.

Personally, I don't see this kind of clearing up anytime soon.

I mean, increasingly, this talk of the midterms, increasingly, Trump has been talking about oil companies making too much money.

about gasoline prices being too high.

I think there'll be a kind of muddling through where we get this kind of on-off signaling for a deal, trying to keep oil prices under pressure, trying to keep gasoline prices under pressure, heading into the midterms, but kicking the meat and bone of the deal down the road in terms of

the

final management of the strait and the final rules about nuclear program in Iran, keeping that till after the midterms.

So I don't personally see any resolution that we can really trade for a long time yet, actually.

What do you guys think about that?

I also think that the fatigue that the market is facing from just on-off, on-off is really hitting everyone.

The price reaction nowadays is really muted.

I'm seeing less interest from people to talk about whether the piece deal is real or not at this point in time.

We can.

I mean, we've got a lot to unpack today, obviously.

And Abhishek, you're going to take off a bit more detail on this deal, I guess.

But it is a reported deal of some sort.

To put it bluntly, as we all know by now, it remains very binary.

in terms of the headlines.

So the price goes up when the deal is off and the price goes down when the deal is on.

And nobody can really judge in a very safe way that's tradable what's going to happen in the next 24 hours.

There has been a joint statement.

It's under review.

As far as I can see from reading between the lines, it doesn't really involve the U.S., officially at this stage.

It doesn't necessarily mean that Iran intends on restoring full flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

And the sort of statements coming out to the US camp yesterday, Trump said he'll see what happens.

Vance said negotiations are going to be very messy.

Personally, I don't see this kind of clearing up anytime soon.

I mean, increasingly, this talk of the midterms, increasingly, Trump has been talking about oil companies making too much money.

about gasoline prices being too high.

I think there'll be a kind of muddling through where we get this kind of on-off signaling for a deal, trying to keep oil prices under pressure, trying to keep gasoline prices under pressure, heading into the midterms, but kicking the meat and bone of the deal down the road in terms of

the

final management of the strait and the final rules about nuclear program in Iran, keeping that till after the midterms.

So I don't personally see any resolution that we can really trade for a long time yet, actually.

What do you guys think about that?

I also think that the fatigue that the market is facing from just on-off, on-off is really hitting everyone.

The price reaction nowadays is really muted.

I'm seeing less interest from people to talk about whether the piece deal is real or not at this point in time.