Bipin RaiHost
Uh, before we begin, uh, keeping the format, uh, relatively the same as we have in prior episodes, we're gonna do a quick pulse check on the current state of the macro.

But some of this could also reflect an increase in the term premium, which has moved markedly higher over the past week.

And, you know, just as a quick refresher for, for some of you that aren't quite clear on what the term premium is, it's basically the premium that market's priced into the long end issues, uh, which is the difference between actually holding a ten or thirty-year bond as opposed to just rolling over shorter-term maturities over that same timeframe.

Now, there was little attempt to-- made to justify the decision to remain on hold, uh, albeit though we do think it was the right decision.

I mean, the closest thing we did get to one was really a, a confusing, uh, take that rising long end yields, uh, before last week had done a lot of the dirty work when it came to tightening already.

Then again, you know, that's when the long end will take notice and when you start to see nascent credibility risk start to get priced in.

And that's basically what we saw in the aftermath, uh, as thirty-year yields, again, as I mentioned earlier, moved above the, uh, five hundred and twenty basis point, uh, mark for the first time in several decades.

Uh, before we begin, uh, keeping the format, uh, relatively the same as we have in prior episodes, we're gonna do a quick pulse check on the current state of the macro.

But some of this could also reflect an increase in the term premium, which has moved markedly higher over the past week.

And, you know, just as a quick refresher for, for some of you that aren't quite clear on what the term premium is, it's basically the premium that market's priced into the long end issues, uh, which is the difference between actually holding a ten or thirty-year bond as opposed to just rolling over shorter-term maturities over that same timeframe.

Now, there was little attempt to-- made to justify the decision to remain on hold, uh, albeit though we do think it was the right decision.

I mean, the closest thing we did get to one was really a, a confusing, uh, take that rising long end yields, uh, before last week had done a lot of the dirty work when it came to tightening already.

Then again, you know, that's when the long end will take notice and when you start to see nascent credibility risk start to get priced in.

And that's basically what we saw in the aftermath, uh, as thirty-year yields, again, as I mentioned earlier, moved above the, uh, five hundred and twenty basis point, uh, mark for the first time in several decades.
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