Bipin RaiHost

And given the fact that, you know, a significant or substantial portion of energy imports, especially natural gas, do come from the region.
So, first of all, I think that President Lagarde and the entire governing council is probably wishing that they were back in January when things were, and I'm going to use my air quotes here, in a good place in terms of monetary policy and inflation.
Like they're one of the few countries that had or regions that had inflation like right on 2% on the 2% target.
It was funny because when you mentioned that about what we see for the ECB, so that June 11th rate hike was pretty much expected by almost everyone because they had basically said in the two weeks before the meeting, almost every single governing council member said, we are going to raise rates.
Now, shortly after that, that was the same day, by the way, that Brent cracked the $90 mark per barrel.
And then, of course, now with the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding no longer existing and everything is, quote unquote, over, as President Trump would call it, you know, now we've seen a reversal.
Now, I don't think, I think personally, this is like way too soon for another rate hike.
They actually mentioned at the June meeting that I think Brent would have to be above 100 bucks per barrel for an extended period before they would even consider another rate hike in July.
So we, along with the market, I believe, are looking for like zero change in the policy rate on Thursday, July 23rd, this Thursday.
At the same time, We're going to be very closely listening to what President Lagarde says and what the press conference or press release says about how worried they are about all the direct effects, the indirect effects, the second round effects, those three things that they're always talking about.
But right now, as it stands, I think we are going to stick with our call for one more rate hike, and that's coming in September.

It does feel like, especially now, given that Kevin Warsh has placed less of an emphasis on forward guidance going forward, that so much of how central banks are deliberating now is dependent on incoming data.


And given the fact that, you know, a significant or substantial portion of energy imports, especially natural gas, do come from the region.
So, first of all, I think that President Lagarde and the entire governing council is probably wishing that they were back in January when things were, and I'm going to use my air quotes here, in a good place in terms of monetary policy and inflation.
Like they're one of the few countries that had or regions that had inflation like right on 2% on the 2% target.
It was funny because when you mentioned that about what we see for the ECB, so that June 11th rate hike was pretty much expected by almost everyone because they had basically said in the two weeks before the meeting, almost every single governing council member said, we are going to raise rates.
Now, shortly after that, that was the same day, by the way, that Brent cracked the $90 mark per barrel.
And then, of course, now with the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding no longer existing and everything is, quote unquote, over, as President Trump would call it, you know, now we've seen a reversal.
Now, I don't think, I think personally, this is like way too soon for another rate hike.
They actually mentioned at the June meeting that I think Brent would have to be above 100 bucks per barrel for an extended period before they would even consider another rate hike in July.
So we, along with the market, I believe, are looking for like zero change in the policy rate on Thursday, July 23rd, this Thursday.
At the same time, We're going to be very closely listening to what President Lagarde says and what the press conference or press release says about how worried they are about all the direct effects, the indirect effects, the second round effects, those three things that they're always talking about.
But right now, as it stands, I think we are going to stick with our call for one more rate hike, and that's coming in September.

It does feel like, especially now, given that Kevin Warsh has placed less of an emphasis on forward guidance going forward, that so much of how central banks are deliberating now is dependent on incoming data.
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