The Money Café with Alan Kohler
Sep 8, 2026 · 45 min · 16 segments
On The Money Café this week, Alan Kohler and Stephen Mayne go through the latest market movements, the RBA's next move, the Bathla collapse and its impact on housing, the AGM circuit, and answer…
Stephen MayneHost
Alan KohlerHost
Now, where do we start? I mean, it's bond route, it's oil surging, it's another poor night on Wall Street.
So, what did you say on the news last night? Everybody's miserable and it's pretty rocky times on markets, that's for sure.
Well, it's very interesting because we've had a couple of statements from Reserve Bank people.
Sarah Hunter, who's their chief economist, the assistant governor, economic, she was at the Financial Review's housing summit and she said, well, we might have to put up interest rates.
And then Andrew Hawser, the deputy governor, did an interview on 7.30 last night, which is unusual.
And he said the same thing, you know, inflation is too high, it's sticky, we need to do something about it.
The market odds of a rate hike this month, which is at the end of this month, is now at about 70%.
So the markets are kind of inclined to think that it's more likely than not that there'll be a hike in September.
I think when you get to November, which is the next meeting after that, then it's more or less kind of certain or becoming close to certain.
And it's a similar story in the US as well, isn't it? Inflation's too high, Walsh, despite being Trump's man, and they've got similar sort of percentage chance of a rate hike there.
And the point about last night's graphs, which there was the business confidence, which is, you know, well down.
And the other graph I had that you referred to, everyone's miserable, was that basically consumer confidence is negative No matter what your mortgage status is, whether you've got a mortgage, you haven't got a mortgage, or you're renting, everyone's miserable.
And so I reckon what that means is that if there is a rate hike this month, and possibly even another one in November, then we're heading for a recession because confidence and sentiment is well down, even though inflation is high.
And I think that I interviewed Shane Oliver yesterday for Intelligent Investor and he's kind of saying that we may be getting to the point where the Reserve Bank thinks we're going to have to have a recession, perhaps a brief, mild recession, in order to control inflation.
Now, where do we start? I mean, it's bond route, it's oil surging, it's another poor night on Wall Street.
So, what did you say on the news last night? Everybody's miserable and it's pretty rocky times on markets, that's for sure.
Well, it's very interesting because we've had a couple of statements from Reserve Bank people.
Sarah Hunter, who's their chief economist, the assistant governor, economic, she was at the Financial Review's housing summit and she said, well, we might have to put up interest rates.
And then Andrew Hawser, the deputy governor, did an interview on 7.30 last night, which is unusual.
And he said the same thing, you know, inflation is too high, it's sticky, we need to do something about it.
The market odds of a rate hike this month, which is at the end of this month, is now at about 70%.
So the markets are kind of inclined to think that it's more likely than not that there'll be a hike in September.
I think when you get to November, which is the next meeting after that, then it's more or less kind of certain or becoming close to certain.
And it's a similar story in the US as well, isn't it? Inflation's too high, Walsh, despite being Trump's man, and they've got similar sort of percentage chance of a rate hike there.
And the point about last night's graphs, which there was the business confidence, which is, you know, well down.
And the other graph I had that you referred to, everyone's miserable, was that basically consumer confidence is negative No matter what your mortgage status is, whether you've got a mortgage, you haven't got a mortgage, or you're renting, everyone's miserable.
And so I reckon what that means is that if there is a rate hike this month, and possibly even another one in November, then we're heading for a recession because confidence and sentiment is well down, even though inflation is high.
And I think that I interviewed Shane Oliver yesterday for Intelligent Investor and he's kind of saying that we may be getting to the point where the Reserve Bank thinks we're going to have to have a recession, perhaps a brief, mild recession, in order to control inflation.
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