Shane Oliver

Better Shares chief economist David Bassanese warned the RBA would hit Aussies with three hikes to tame stubborn price pressures, even if it meant a recession.

You've got the AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver warning three hikes would knock us into recession and be overkill.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund released a stark assessment on Australia's troubled economic outlook yesterday, imploring Mr Chalmers to rein in government spending to help control the inflation challenge.

We've heard it for months.

Is that right?

Uh, yes, I believe so, due to the fact that the housing, uh, shortage has been estimated by Dr. Shane Oliver from AMP as over 300,000 houses-

Mm

...

Uh, I thought I'd get the opinion of one of the economists who, uh, got, uh ...

Well, he got a bit of a serve, all the economists from Barnaby last night on the ABC, and the bloke we like to go to, Shane Oliver from the AMP.

Good morning, mate.

Good morning, Tim.

Thanks.Thanks, Tim.

Take care.

That's Shane Oliver from the AMP.

So there you go.

Okay, yeah, at the moment it's at 12%, and there have been arguments that maybe it should be raised to 12.5%, maybe even 13%, which is going to give you a little bit less money in your skyrocket but more money when you retire.

But are you better off using that money now? Now, remember, this is where it gets me, and if you talk to Shane Oliver or Scotty Phillips, if you do have more money, more cash to spend every week, that's going to contribute to inflation.

So the argument is if you have less money in your skyrocket, you won't be spending as much.

That money will be put into your super and hopefully earning interest.

machine.

Yep, yep.

But, Scotty, before we jump into the history of Australian credit, this is a topic that you and Shane Oliver have offered opinions on before, and you're the two economists I respect so much and have on regularly, and I thank you so much.

Neither of you are fans of Australians accessing this super early.

Citigroup on Friday was tipping a 10% peak to trough house price fall in the first quarter by the first quarter of next year, which is double its speed.

prior forecast Goldman Sachs HSBC warning of 13% drop Shane Oliver's at 11 and the rise in bond yields in Australia in one week has added 10 billion dollars to the country's annual interest rate bill on a trillion dollars worth of debt it's all pretty miserable stuff the australian economy and the only area that's shown some strength over the last week has been the tech area oracle had results on friday which showed a cloud revenue up 120 the oracle share price dropped 1.7 but it shot it infrastructure hardware server companies through the roof Dell up 12% Hewlett Packard up 12% Cisco up 4% Texas Instruments up 4% and all the magnificent seven stocks generally were a little bit higher SpaceX up 2% helped by expectations that they're waiting in the Nasdaq will be increased which puts a bit more passive buying on into the stock so the inflation number not a great number but the whole thing has been overwhelmed and what saw the US market higher and why our SPY futures are up 18 this morning is because of, on Friday, a 4.8% drop in the Brent oil price and a 3.8% drop in the West Texas oil price.

And that has all come on the back of a report that Gulf foreign ministers are going to meet with Iran's foreign ministers in Oman today and discuss a jointly managed Strait of Hormuz traffic plan.

Although this morning, it's got to be said, the oil price, having got down to $100, is going up again.

Investors getting nervous about the Iran war, uh, the price of oil, the inflation outlook, the amount of national debt.

And, uh, some commentary, really interesting commentary from, uh, Shane Oliver, uh, chief economist at AMP this week, talking about the, for instance, the Australian ten-year bond yield at five point two percent.

Six years ago, it was nought point five percent.

Uh, and it, it matters for all of us.