The Observational Interpretation Fallacy

And this one, um, is entitled The Observational Interpretation Fallacy.

Uh-huh.

It sounds good, doesn't it? The Observational Interpretation Fallacy.

I would like you to know that the observational interpretation fallacy has a Wikipedia page, which means it is a real thing, 'cause it's on Wikipedia.

I, I, uh, which, uh, as someone who is very keen to have their own [laughs] Wikipedia page, and that's not as easy as it sounds.

So this is clearly a thing.

All right? It's, it's a thing, and it is a thing.

It's ...

I have f- o- only ever come across it, uh, in one paper that was published on the 29th of December, 2024, uh, in the Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, um, by Filippo D'Amico.

I don't know if I said that correctly.

A whole bunch of other people, um, and I will link it in the show notes.

Uh, I am actually gonna ...

Uh, ha- ha- have you ever heard me read an abstract from a, from a paper in, in, in a podcast before? Probably not.

I don't think I've ever done this.

And, and fair warning, it is behind a paywall.

I have not read the actual paper, but that's not relevant because all we care about here is the observation interpretation f- interpretation fallacy.

The observational interpretation fallacy is a term that I believe they've coined.

Now, it may have been used before that, but I'm not aware of it.

So we all know that association is not causation, right? They're not the same thing, and we all know that assuming that associ- association somehow proves causation is a logical fallacy.

You are all smart people, and you know this already.

I'm gonna take that a little bit further today.

Let me read the abstract.

Let me start by reading the abstract.

"The differentiation between association and causation is a significant challenge in medical research, often further complicated by cognitive biases that erroneously interpret coincidental observational data as indicative of causality." Hmm.

Is this ringing any bells by any chance? "Such misrepresentations can lead to misguided clinical guidelines and healthcare practice, potentially endangering patient safety and leading to inefficient use of resources." [gasps] [exhales] Some of us have been saying this for a while, certainly before the 29th of December, 2024.