Jun 11, 2026 · 28 min · 11 segments
'We are going to see a lot of pressure in the coming months,' warns Prof Patrick Bond of the University of Johannesburg.
Patrick BondGuest
Duduzile RamelaHost
There are certainly creditor countries, one of perhaps surprisingly the major country within the G20 that has probably now the least debt.
But for most of the others, state debt, either foreign, that is, you issue securities in international markets, you get foreign loans, particularly from institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, on the one hand, or domestic, have state borrowing locally.
That has driven up the African debt more, and the South African debt especially, more than any other factor.
Occasionally individuals will borrow, but it's really about corporates, parastatals, and state agencies.
So why do they borrow? My historic studies of this show that when rates of profit, which are cyclical, they tend to be high after disruptive periods, or new technologies introduced, or a war has been settled.
And after that, as they decline, then particularly companies which drive the economy need to borrow more to get the kind of capital to continue to accumulate, to invest.
And in my historic understanding, it's declining profits that then are the drivers of debt.
There are certainly creditor countries, one of perhaps surprisingly the major country within the G20 that has probably now the least debt.
But for most of the others, state debt, either foreign, that is, you issue securities in international markets, you get foreign loans, particularly from institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, on the one hand, or domestic, have state borrowing locally.
That has driven up the African debt more, and the South African debt especially, more than any other factor.
Occasionally individuals will borrow, but it's really about corporates, parastatals, and state agencies.
So why do they borrow? My historic studies of this show that when rates of profit, which are cyclical, they tend to be high after disruptive periods, or new technologies introduced, or a war has been settled.
And after that, as they decline, then particularly companies which drive the economy need to borrow more to get the kind of capital to continue to accumulate, to invest.
And in my historic understanding, it's declining profits that then are the drivers of debt.
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